Kansas State @ Iowa State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 14, 2024)

Sat, Nov 30, 2024, 7:30 PM ESTWeek 14 · at Iowa State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff22°F7 mphgusts 13DryCold Over 50% of 115 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Kansas State

8-3 · Power #20

final

Final

Iowa State

9-2 · Power #24

▲ winner

Closing spread

ISU -2.5

✓ ISU W

Total

51.5

▼ Under · 50 pts

Model before kickoff

KSU 24–26 ISU

✓ ISU (57%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenISU -2.5

CloseISU -2.5

Total52.5 → 51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenISU -2.5

no move

CloseISU -2.5

No change since the open

Total

Open52.5

▼ 1

Close51.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened ISU -2.5 · unchangedmodel ISU -2

model ISU -2

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 56%, covered 48% (213 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenISU -2.5

CloseISU -2.5

Total52.5 → 51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ISU as a 2.5-point home favorite against KSU, the favorite won 5, covered 4, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: ISU won 29–21; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 50 points stayed under 51.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 0.4 against an average line of 2.8; 53.4 points a game (usually 53.2). Of the 2 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	WISC vs PUR 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar total & rest	-1.5	35–24	W	O51.5
Very close	BAY vs KSU 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & total	-2.5	3–31	L	U52.25
Very close	NCST vs FSU 2022 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	19–17	L	U50.5
Very close	FLA vs LSU 2022 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & total	-2	35–45	L	O51.5
Very close	UK vs MIZ 2023 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & season form	-2	21–38	L	O50.5
Very close	AUB vs MSST 2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & rest	-5.75	34–43	L	O51
Very close	UTAH vs ORE 2021 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3	38–7	W	U58.5
Very close	UK vs LSU 2021 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & season form	-2	42–21	W	O50.5
Very close	ASU vs BYU 2024 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	28–23	W	O48.5
Very close	KSU vs BAY 2021 · Week 12 · very close · similar situation & rest	-2.5	10–20	L	U50

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
KSU WLLLW	4-7	36%	1-4	—
ISU LLLWL	6-5	55%	3-3	5-5

Venue/role: KSU away, as underdog; ISU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
KSU OOUUO	6-5	55%	8-3
ISU OUOUO	6-5	55%	9-2

Stayed under: it needed 7 in the 4th quarter and got 5. 55% of games with totals 47.5–55.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
KSU	7-3 70%	4-6 40%	6-4 60%
ISU	8-2 80%	6-4 60%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

KSU 0–1 ISU ISU leads · 1 game since 2023 · ISU has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 25 2023	Iowa State 42 @ Kansas State 35	KSU -9.5	ISU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

KSU+11.5 →+11.9▲ 0.4#19

ISU+4.2 →+11.3▲ 7.1#20

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW13

KSU

Longer bar = better

ISU

#31

Offense

◀ KSU better

#59

#32

Defense

◀ KSU better

#47

+0.1 #61

Turnovers

ISU better ▶

+0.6 #26

65 plays #96

Pace

ISU faster ▶

70 plays #30

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When KSU has the ball

Even matchup

	KSU off	ISU def	Edge
Points / game	30.5 #49	19.5 #18	ISU
Yards / play	6.52 #19	5.33 #50	KSU
PPA / play	+0.23 #23	+0.06 #44	KSU
Success rate	46% #31	42% #74	KSU

When ISU has the ball

Advantage: KSU defense

	ISU off	KSU def	Edge
Points / game	31.4 #46	21.3 #32	Even
Yards / play	6.14 #45	5.33 #49	Even
PPA / play	+0.17 #48	+0.03 #31	Even
Success rate	41% #96	37% #15	KSU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

KSU scoring against the ISU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
KSU scored	5.8 #67	8.5 #63	14.4 #65	8.3 #23	7.9 #46	16.2 #27
ISU allowed	5.6 #82	5.7 #27	11.4 #49	3.1 #11	5.0 #32	8.1 #13

ISU scoring against the KSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ISU scored	5.9 #65	7.5 #81	13.5 #78	7.2 #44	10.7 #5	17.9 #9
KSU allowed	3.7 #31	7.6 #68	11.4 #49	4.2 #30	5.7 #47	9.9 #31

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.