Nevada @ UNLV: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 14, 2024)

Sat, Nov 30, 2024, 8:00 PM ESTWeek 14 · at UNLV · Conference game

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Nevada

3-9 · Power #102

final

Final

UNLV

9-2 · Power #42

▲ winner

Closing spread

UNLV -17.5

✓ UNLV W

Total

54.5

▼ Under · 52 pts

Model before kickoff

NEV 19–36 UNLV

✓ UNLV (90%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUNLV -19

CloseUNLV -17.5

Total55.5 → 54.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenUNLV -19

1.5 → NEV

CloseUNLV -17.5

1.5 pts toward Nevada

Total

Open55.5

▼ 1

Close54.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened UNLV -19 · closed UNLV -17.5 · moved 1.5 toward NEVmodel UNLV -18.5

model UNLV -18.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 16.5–18.5 since 2023: won 94%, covered 52% (81 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 51% (139 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUNLV -19

CloseUNLV -17.5

Total55.5 → 54.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like UNLV as a 17.5-point home favorite against NEV, the favorite won 9, covered 5, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: UNLV won 38–14; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 52 points stayed under 54.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 89%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 18.3 against an average line of 17; 58.3 points a game (usually 54.4). Of the 3 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	UCF vs NAVY 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar season form & rest	-15.25	14–17	L	U53
Very close	BOIS vs USU 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar team ratings & total	-16.5	42–23	W	O52
Very close	MEM vs CLT 2024 · Week 9 · very close · similar spread & total	-17	33–28	L	O56
Very close	WSU vs HAW 2024 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & spread	-18.5	42–10	W	U55.5
Very close	NCST vs LT 2021 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread & rest	-17.75	34–27	L	O56
Very close	JMU vs GAST 2024 · Week 11 · very close · similar total & season form	-14.5	38–7	W	U53.5
Very close	NEV vs UNLV 2021 · Week 9 · very close · similar spread & total	-19	51–20	W	O58.25
Very close	USA vs USM 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar team ratings & total	-18.5	55–3	W	O51
Very close	UTSA vs UTEP 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & rest	-16.5	34–31	L	O56.5
Very close	OKST vs BYU 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & spread	-16.5	40–34	L	O55

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NEV LLLWL	6-6	50%	3-2	5-4
UNLV WLLWW	6-4	60%	3-2	5-3

Venue/role: NEV away, as underdog; UNLV home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
NEV UOOUU	6-6	50%	3-9
UNLV UUOOU	6-4	60%	9-2

Stayed under: it needed 17 in the 4th quarter and got 14. 52% of games with totals 50.5–58.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NEV	2-8 20%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%
UNLV	8-2 80%	6-4 60%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

NEV 0–1 UNLV UNLV leads · 1 game since 2023 · UNLV has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 14 2023	UNLV 45 @ Nevada 27	UNLV -7.5	UNLV W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

NEV−15.0 →−8.6▲ 6.4#103

UNLV−2.0 →+6.0▲ 8.0#40

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW13

NEV

Longer bar = better

UNLV

#69

Offense

UNLV better ▶

#36

#102

Defense

UNLV better ▶

#26

−0.1 #76

Turnovers

UNLV better ▶

+1.2 #4

64 plays #108

Pace

UNLV faster ▶

68 plays #63

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When NEV has the ball

Advantage: UNLV defense

	NEV off	UNLV def	Edge
Points / game	23.8 #103	22.7 #45	UNLV
Yards / play	5.94 #61	5.03 #29	UNLV
PPA / play	+0.14 #63	0.00 #18	UNLV
Success rate	45% #50	36% #13	UNLV

When UNLV has the ball

Advantage: UNLV offense

	UNLV off	NEV def	Edge
Points / game	38.7 #7	28.0 #90	UNLV
Yards / play	6.29 #33	5.86 #92	UNLV
PPA / play	+0.19 #37	+0.19 #111	UNLV
Success rate	43% #68	46% #116	UNLV

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

NEV scoring against the UNLV defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NEV scored	5.3 #79	5.9 #114	11.2 #105	6.1 #65	6.6 #80	12.7 #77
UNLV allowed	4.4 #48	6.3 #39	10.6 #38	5.6 #71	5.9 #52	11.5 #55

UNLV scoring against the NEV defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UNLV scored	9.2 #10	11.7 #15	20.9 #11	8.8 #20	8.7 #30	17.5 #14
NEV allowed	6.6 #99	7.9 #74	14.5 #92	5.2 #57	8.3 #107	13.5 #85

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.