Hawai'i @ Washington State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 8, 2024)

Sat, Oct 19, 2024, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 8 · at Washington State

Weather at kickoff64°F8 mphgusts 16DryWeather watch ›

Hawai'i

2-4 · Power #109

final

Final

Washington State

5-1 · Power #68

▲ winner

Closing spread

WSU -18.5

✓ WSU W

Total

54.5

▼ Under · 52 pts

Model before kickoff

HAW 18–37 WSU

✓ WSU (91%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenWSU -20

CloseWSU -18.5

Total55.5 → 54.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenWSU -20

1.5 → HAW

CloseWSU -18.5

1.5 pts toward Hawai'i

Total

Open55.5

▼ 1

Close54.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened WSU -20 · closed WSU -18.5 · moved 1.5 toward HAWmodel WSU -22

model WSU -22

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 17.5–19.5 since 2023: won 98%, covered 51% (51 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 48% (60 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenWSU -20

CloseWSU -18.5

Total55.5 → 54.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like WSU as an 18.5-point home favorite against HAW, the favorite won 9, covered 6, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: WSU won 42–10; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 52 points stayed under 54.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 90%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 46%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 21.5 against an average line of 19; 54.3 points a game (usually 54.3). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	NEV vs UNLV 2021 · Week 9 · very close · similar spread & rest	-19	51–20	W	O58.25
Very close	HOU vs TEM 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & total	-20	43–36	L	O56
Very close	MEM vs TEM 2022 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & spread	-18.5	24–3	W	U50
Very close	NCST vs LT 2021 · Week 5 · very close · similar situation & rest	-17.75	34–27	L	O56
Very close	UCF vs NAVY 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & total	-15.25	14–17	L	U53
Very close	BYU vs WYO 2022 · Week 4 · very close · similar rest & season form	-21.25	38–24	L	O49.75
Very close	APP vs USA 2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & season form	-21.5	31–7	W	U51.75
Close	LIB vs MTSU 2021 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & situation	-20	41–13	W	U58.75
Close	USA vs USM 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar total & situation	-18.5	55–3	W	O51
Close	AFA vs UNLV 2021 · Week 13 · close · similar rest	-18.5	48–14	W	O49.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
HAW W–WLL	2-3	40%	0-1	1-2
WSU W––LW	3-1	75%	2-0	2-0

Venue/role: HAW away, as underdog; WSU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
HAW U–UOU	1-4	20%	2-4
WSU U––OU	2-2	50%	5-1

Stayed under: it needed 17 in the 4th quarter and got 14. 52% of games with totals 50.5–58.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
HAW	5-5 50%	5-4 56%	2-7 22%
WSU	6-4 60%	5-3 63%	4-4 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

HAW−11.7 →−10.3▲ 1.4#108

WSU+2.5 →+4.3▲ 1.8#50

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW7

HAW

Longer bar = better

WSU

#94

Offense

WSU better ▶

#37

#51

Defense

◀ HAW better

#91

−0.2 #82

Turnovers

WSU better ▶

+0.7 #32

66 plays #75

Pace

WSU faster ▶

70 plays #33

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When HAW has the ball

Even matchup

	HAW off	WSU def	Edge
Points / game	21.3 #114	29.8 #100	Even
Yards / play	5.28 #102	6.22 #114	Even
PPA / play	+0.11 #85	+0.12 #80	Even
Success rate	43% #75	41% #69	Even

When WSU has the ball

Even matchup

	WSU off	HAW def	Edge
Points / game	39.0 #20	20.5 #38	Even
Yards / play	6.60 #30	5.31 #59	WSU
PPA / play	+0.20 #45	+0.13 #85	WSU
Success rate	45% #52	36% #21	HAW

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

HAW scoring against the WSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
HAW scored	6.5 #60	4.5 #123	11.0 #103	5.7 #79	4.7 #124	10.3 #108
WSU allowed	6.8 #102	6.7 #53	13.5 #81	7.8 #114	7.5 #97	15.3 #114

WSU scoring against the HAW defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WSU scored	11.0 #10	12.3 #16	23.3 #11	5.2 #82	9.2 #29	14.3 #57
HAW allowed	3.3 #30	6.8 #56	10.2 #46	4.5 #43	5.8 #58	10.3 #41

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.