Utah State @ Colorado State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 14, 2024)

Fri, Nov 29, 2024, 3:30 PM ESTWeek 14 · at Colorado State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff37°F3 mphgusts 11DryCold Over 50% of 115 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Utah State

4-7 · Power #106

final

Final

Colorado State

7-4 · Power #100

▲ winner

Closing spread

CSU -5.5

✓ USU W

Total

56.5

▲ Over · 79 pts

Model before kickoff

USU 27–33 CSU

✓ CSU (66%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenCSU -6

CloseCSU -5.5

Total60.5 → 56.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenCSU -6

0.5 → USU

CloseCSU -5.5

0.5 pts toward Utah State

Total

Open60.5

▼ 4

Close56.5

Down 4 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened CSU -6 · closed CSU -5.5 · moved 0.5 toward USUmodel CSU -6.5

model CSU -6.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 4.5–6.5 since 2023: won 69%, covered 57% (108 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenCSU -6

CloseCSU -5.5

Total60.5 → 56.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like CSU as a 5.5-point home favorite against USU, the favorite won 6, covered 5, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: CSU won 42–37; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 79 points went over 56.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 62%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 9.3 against an average line of 4.8; 52.9 points a game (usually 53.2). Of the 2 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	CMU vs NIU 2021 · Week 8 · very close · similar season form & rest	-6	38–39	L	O56
Very close	USM vs ARST 2022 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & spread	-4.5	20–19	L	U53
Very close	CSU vs UNM 2024 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & season form	-3.5	17–6	W	U61.5
Very close	WSU vs COLO 2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & situation	-4.5	56–14	W	O59.5
Very close	TOL vs CMU 2022 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread & rest	-6.5	38–17	W	U56
Very close	BUFF vs KENT 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & season form	-4.5	27–30	L	O51
Very close	NIU vs WMU 2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar season form & situation	-4	24–0	W	U55.5
Very close	WMU vs EMU 2022 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & spread	-4.5	23–45	L	O55.5
Close	OHIO vs BGSU 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar situation & rest	-5.5	38–14	W	U52.5
Close	NCSU vs WAKE 2024 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & spread	-4	30–34	L	O52.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
USU LWLWW	5-5	50%	1-4	3-4
CSU WWWWL	7-4	64%	4-2	6-1

Venue/role: USU away, as underdog; CSU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
USU OUOOO	8-2	80%	4-7
CSU UUOUO	5-6	45%	7-4

Went over in Q4. Of 327 earlier overs in games with totals 52.5–60.5, 34% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
USU	3-7 30%	5-5 50%	8-2 80%
CSU	7-3 70%	7-3 70%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

USU 1–0 CSU USU leads · 1 game since 2023 · USU has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 7 2023	Colorado State 24 @ Utah State 44	CSU -3	USU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

USU−6.9 →−10.1▼ 3.2#106

CSU−8.3 →−6.5▲ 1.8#97

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW13

USU

Longer bar = better

CSU

#43

Offense

◀ USU better

#84

#127

Defense

CSU better ▶

#64

−0.4 #97

Turnovers

CSU better ▶

+0.1 #68

73 plays #9

Pace

◀ USU faster

64 plays #101

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When USU has the ball

Advantage: USU offense

	USU off	CSU def	Edge
Points / game	31.5 #45	23.2 #54	Even
Yards / play	6.40 #30	5.67 #77	USU
PPA / play	+0.15 #59	+0.06 #49	Even
Success rate	45% #37	42% #76	USU

When CSU has the ball

Advantage: CSU offense

	CSU off	USU def	Edge
Points / game	23.5 #104	37.4 #130	CSU
Yards / play	5.86 #64	6.52 #124	CSU
PPA / play	+0.10 #86	+0.24 #126	CSU
Success rate	42% #83	48% #126	CSU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

USU scoring against the CSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
USU scored	6.3 #54	7.8 #76	14.1 #69	7.9 #27	9.5 #15	17.4 #15
CSU allowed	2.5 #10	8.1 #78	10.6 #36	4.7 #45	6.5 #67	11.2 #51

CSU scoring against the USU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CSU scored	6.3 #54	6.2 #111	12.5 #89	5.1 #89	5.3 #113	10.4 #113
USU allowed	4.9 #60	15.7 #134	20.6 #128	6.5 #89	10.3 #126	16.7 #118

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.