Liberty @ Sam Houston: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 14, 2024)

Fri, Nov 29, 2024, 3:30 PM ESTWeek 14 · at Sam Houston · Conference game

Weather at kickoff56°F9 mphgusts 22DryWeather watch ›

Liberty

8-2 · Power #95

final

Final

Sam Houston

8-3 · Power #93

▲ winner

Closing spread

LIB -2.5

✓ SHSU W

Total

47.5

▼ Under · 38 pts

Model before kickoff

LIB 26–24 SHSU

✗ LIB (55%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenLIB -2.5

CloseLIB -2.5

Total47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenLIB -2.5

no move

CloseLIB -2.5

No change since the open

Total

Open47.5

no move

Close47.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened LIB -2.5 · unchangedmodel SHSU -1

model SHSU -1

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 53%, covered 44% (146 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenLIB -2.5

CloseLIB -2.5

Total47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like LIB as a 2.5-point road favorite at SHSU, the favorite won 8, covered 5, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: SHSU won 20–18 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 38 points stayed under 47.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

5 of 956%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 49%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 3.4 against an average line of 2.6; 42.2 points a game (usually 53.2). Of the 2 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	NEB @ RUTG 2022 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3	14–13	L	U50.5
Very close	AFA @ CSU 2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & spread	-3	35–21	W	O45
Very close	FRES @ NEV 2024 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3	24–21	P	U50
Very close	MD @ RUTG 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & total	-2	42–24	W	O45.5
Very close	TOL @ M-OH 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & spread	-2	21–17	W	U46.5
Very close	APP @ MRSH 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & season form	-2	21–28	L	O47.5
Very close	MRSH @ CCU 2023 · Week 9 · very close · similar spread & total	-3.5	6–34	L	U47
Very close	CSU @ NEV 2024 · Week 10 · very close · similar situation & rest	-2	38–21	W	O45.5
Very close	MIA @ UVA 2022 · Week 9 · very close · similar spread & total	-3	14–12	L	U48.5
Very close	AFA @ SDSU 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & situation	-2	13–3	W	U43.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
LIB LLWLW	3-7	30%	1-3	3-7
SHSU LLLLL	4-6	40%	1-2	2-2

Venue/role: LIB away, as favorite; SHSU home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
LIB OUUOO	5-5	50%	8-2
SHSU UUUUU	3-7	30%	8-3

Stayed under: it needed 19 in the 4th quarter and got 9. 53% of games with totals 43.5–51.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
LIB	8-2 80%	3-7 30%	5-5 50%
SHSU	7-3 70%	3-6 33%	3-6 33%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

LIB 2–1 SHSU LIB leads · 3 games since 2023 · LIB has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 5 2023	Sam Houston 16 @ Liberty 21	LIB -17.5	SHSU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

LIB+3.4 →−3.9▼ 7.3#82

SHSU−10.8 →−5.9▲ 4.9#94

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW13

LIB

Longer bar = better

SHSU

#24

Offense

◀ LIB better

#105

#56

Defense

SHSU better ▶

#33

+0.1 #57

Turnovers

SHSU better ▶

+0.6 #28

70 plays #30

Pace

Even

70 plays #32

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When LIB has the ball

Even matchup

	LIB off	SHSU def	Edge
Points / game	32.0 #40	20.2 #24	Even
Yards / play	6.45 #26	4.87 #19	Even
PPA / play	+0.23 #23	+0.01 #22	Even
Success rate	51% #6	41% #66	LIB

When SHSU has the ball

Advantage: LIB defense

	SHSU off	LIB def	Edge
Points / game	23.5 #105	23.6 #59	LIB
Yards / play	5.10 #119	5.59 #70	LIB
PPA / play	+0.08 #97	+0.04 #40	LIB
Success rate	41% #100	41% #55	LIB

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

LIB scoring against the SHSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LIB scored	4.1 #106	10.6 #29	14.7 #58	5.1 #88	10.8 #6	15.9 #35
SHSU allowed	5.1 #69	5.2 #18	10.3 #32	4.7 #45	5.2 #38	9.9 #29

SHSU scoring against the LIB defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SHSU scored	4.3 #102	7.5 #85	11.7 #98	7.3 #41	3.9 #130	11.2 #103
LIB allowed	6.1 #94	5.8 #24	11.9 #57	5.2 #57	5.9 #54	11.1 #50

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.