Mississippi State @ Ole Miss: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 14, 2024)

Fri, Nov 29, 2024, 3:30 PM ESTWeek 14 · at Ole Miss · Conference game

Weather at kickoff44°F8 mphgusts 19DryWeather watch ›

Mississippi State

2-9 · Power #72

final

Final

Ole Miss

8-3 · Power #3

▲ winner

Closing spread

MISS -26.5

✓ MSST W

Total

63.5

▼ Under · 40 pts

Model before kickoff

MSST 17–44 MISS

✓ MISS (98%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMISS -26.5

CloseMISS -26.5

Total61.5 → 63.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenMISS -26.5

no move

CloseMISS -26.5

No change since the open

Total

Open61.5

▲ 2

Close63.5

Up 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened MISS -26.5 · unchangedmodel MISS -31.5

model MISS -31.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 25.5–27.5 since 2023: won 98%, covered 50% (46 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMISS -26.5

CloseMISS -26.5

Total61.5 → 63.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like MISS as a 26.5-point home favorite against MSST, the favorite won 10, covered 5, and 2 went over the total.

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This game: MISS won 26–14; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 40 points stayed under 63.5, as in 8 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Normal range · usually 94%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

2 of 1020%

Below normal · usually 52%

Overs below normal. Splits like this often fade, so treat it as context, not a pick. Average result: favorite by 21.5 against an average line of 25.7; 49.5 points a game (usually 54.5). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	TENN vs MSST 2024 · Week 11 · very close · similar season form & situation	-26.5	33–14	L	U61.5
Very close	ORE vs CAL 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar situation & total	-25.5	63–19	W	O61.5
Close	MIA vs WAKE 2024 · Week 13 · close · similar situation & season form	-23.5	42–14	W	U67
Close	WASH vs ASU 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar spread & season form	-28	15–7	L	U60
Close	CIN vs USF 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar spread & rest	-27	28–24	L	U58.5
Close	BOIS vs NEV 2024 · Week 11 · close · similar situation & season form	-23.5	28–21	L	U61.5
Close	MISS vs VAN 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar season form & situation	-24	33–7	W	U63
Close	OSU vs MINN 2023 · Week 12 · close · similar situation & rest	-27.5	37–3	W	U51.5
Close	UTAH vs STAN 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar situation & rest	-24	42–7	W	U54
Close	AUB vs GAST 2021 · Week 4 · close · similar spread & rest	-27.5	34–24	L	O57.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MSST WLWWL	6-4	60%	3-1	4-3
MISS LLWWL	7-4	64%	4-2	6-4

Venue/role: MSST away, as underdog; MISS home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MSST OOOUO	7-3	70%	2-9
MISS UUOUU	2-9	18%	8-3

Stayed under: it needed 30 in the 4th quarter and got 6. 42% of games with totals 59.5–67.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MSST	1-9 10%	5-4 56%	6-3 67%
MISS	7-3 70%	6-4 60%	1-9 10%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

MSST 0–1 MISS MISS leads · 1 game since 2023 · MISS has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 23 2023	Ole Miss 17 @ Mississippi State 7	MISS -10	P

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MSST+1.2 →−3.3▼ 4.5#80

MISS+12.8 →+23.1▲ 10.3#3

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW13

MSST

Longer bar = better

MISS

#82

Offense

MISS better ▶

#128

Defense

MISS better ▶

−0.3 #92

Turnovers

MISS better ▶

+0.6 #24

66 plays #79

Pace

MISS faster ▶

72 plays #17

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MSST has the ball

Advantage: MISS defense

	MSST off	MISS def	Edge
Points / game	26.9 #80	13.9 #5	MISS
Yards / play	5.80 #68	4.45 #6	MISS
PPA / play	+0.13 #75	−0.04 #10	MISS
Success rate	40% #103	36% #6	MISS

When MISS has the ball

Advantage: MISS offense

	MISS off	MSST def	Edge
Points / game	38.5 #9	34.8 #123	MISS
Yards / play	7.43 #2	6.44 #120	MISS
PPA / play	+0.32 #7	+0.30 #133	MISS
Success rate	48% #15	51% #136	MISS

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

MSST scoring against the MISS defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MSST scored	4.4 #98	8.3 #70	12.6 #88	7.7 #30	6.5 #82	14.3 #59
MISS allowed	2.1 #8	5.8 #25	7.9 #9	2.6 #5	2.8 #2	5.5 #3

MISS scoring against the MSST defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MISS scored	11.2 #2	11.8 #14	23.0 #1	10.5 #6	4.8 #121	15.3 #42
MSST allowed	8.7 #125	13.2 #131	21.9 #132	5.8 #74	7.1 #76	12.9 #74

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.