Tennessee @ Vanderbilt: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 14, 2024)

Sat, Nov 30, 2024, 12:00 PM ESTWeek 14 · at Vanderbilt · Conference game

Weather at kickoff38°F4 mphgusts 11DryCold Over 50% of 115 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Tennessee

9-2 · Power #11

▲ winner

Final

Vanderbilt

6-5 · Power #53

final

Closing spread

TENN -9.5

✓ TENN W

Total

45.5

▲ Over · 59 pts

Model before kickoff

TENN 31–21 VAN

✓ TENN (77%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTENN -11.5

CloseTENN -9.5

Total47.5 → 45.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenTENN -11.5

2 → VAN

CloseTENN -9.5

2 pts toward Vanderbilt

Total

Open47.5

▼ 2

Close45.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened TENN -11.5 · closed TENN -9.5 · moved 2 toward VANmodel TENN -13.5

model TENN -13.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 8.5–10.5 since 2023: won 71%, covered 48% (59 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 50% (96 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTENN -11.5

CloseTENN -9.5

Total47.5 → 45.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TENN as a 9.5-point road favorite at VAN, the favorite won 9, covered 5, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: TENN won 36–23; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 59 points went over 45.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 73%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 52%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 9.5 against an average line of 9; 47.9 points a game (usually 54.6). Of the 4 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	TEX @ ISU 2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar situation & rest	-7.5	26–16	W	U44.5
Very close	FSU @ FLA 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & total	-6.5	24–15	W	U48.5
Very close	ORST @ CAL 2023 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & season form	-7.5	52–40	W	O51
Very close	AUB @ SC 2021 · Week 12 · very close · similar total & rest	-7	17–21	L	U45.25
Close	PSU @ MD 2023 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & situation	-8.5	51–15	W	O50.5
Close	LOU @ UVA 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & season form	-7	24–20	L	U54
Close	PSU @ MINN 2024 · Week 13 · close · similar situation & season form	-11	26–25	L	O45
Close	ORE @ WIS 2024 · Week 12 · close · similar situation & team ratings	-13.5	16–13	L	U49.5
Close	SMU @ DUKE 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & season form	-11.5	28–27	L	O49.5
Close	OKST @ TTU 2021 · Week 12 · close · similar situation & rest	-10	23–0	W	U55

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TENN WLLLW	6-5	55%	1-2	5-4
VAN LWWLW	8-3	73%	4-2	7-1

Venue/role: TENN away, as favorite; VAN home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
TENN UOUOO	6-5	55%	9-2
VAN UUUUU	5-6	45%	6-5

Went over in Q3. Of 281 earlier overs in games with totals 41.5–49.5, 34% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TENN	8-2 80%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%
VAN	5-5 50%	7-3 70%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

TENN 1–0 VAN TENN leads · 1 game since 2023 · TENN has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 25 2023	Vanderbilt 24 @ Tennessee 48	TENN -28	VAN W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

TENN+13.9 →+18.8▲ 4.9#10

VAN−6.1 →+3.9▲ 10.0#51

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW13

TENN

Longer bar = better

VAN

#31

Offense

◀ TENN better

#75

Defense

◀ TENN better

#87

+0.5 #30

Turnovers

Even

+0.5 #29

74 plays #6

Pace

◀ TENN faster

61 plays #122

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When TENN has the ball

Advantage: TENN offense

	TENN off	VAN def	Edge
Points / game	37.4 #12	21.9 #39	TENN
Yards / play	6.16 #43	5.88 #95	TENN
PPA / play	+0.19 #37	+0.17 #103	TENN
Success rate	46% #30	45% #109	TENN

When VAN has the ball

Advantage: TENN defense

	VAN off	TENN def	Edge
Points / game	27.0 #77	13.1 #4	TENN
Yards / play	5.40 #98	4.32 #5	TENN
PPA / play	+0.16 #50	−0.07 #4	TENN
Success rate	43% #74	35% #6	TENN

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

TENN scoring against the VAN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TENN scored	8.6 #15	11.5 #17	20.1 #13	10.5 #4	6.2 #96	16.7 #24
VAN allowed	4.1 #43	5.2 #17	9.3 #21	6.8 #101	4.9 #29	11.7 #57

VAN scoring against the TENN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
VAN scored	5.8 #67	7.1 #93	12.9 #85	4.3 #108	8.5 #35	12.8 #72
TENN allowed	1.5 #3	3.4 #5	4.8 #1	3.7 #21	4.5 #20	8.3 #13

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.