Texas @ Texas A&M: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 14, 2024)

Sat, Nov 30, 2024, 7:30 PM ESTWeek 14 · at Texas A&M · Conference game

Weather at kickoff56°F6 mphgusts 11DryWeather watch ›

Texas

10-1 · Power #2

▲ winner

Final

Texas A&M

8-3 · Power #19

final

Closing spread

TEX -4.5

✓ TEX W

Total

49.5

▼ Under · 24 pts

Model before kickoff

TEX 28–23 TA&M

✓ TEX (65%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTEX -4.5

CloseTEX -4.5

Total48.5 → 49.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenTEX -4.5

no move

CloseTEX -4.5

No change since the open

Total

Open48.5

▲ 1

Close49.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened TEX -4.5 · unchangedmodel TEX -9.5

model TEX -9.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 3.5–5.5 since 2023: won 65%, covered 49% (88 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTEX -4.5

CloseTEX -4.5

Total48.5 → 49.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TEX as a 4.5-point road favorite at TA&M, the favorite won 6, covered 6, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: TEX won 17–7; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 24 points stayed under 49.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 60%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 8.5 against an average line of 6.1; 55.7 points a game (usually 53.1). Of the 2 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	CLEM @ FSU 2022 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & spread	-4.5	34–28	W	O51
Very close	CLEM @ VT 2024 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & rest	-5.5	24–14	W	U54.5
Very close	OSU @ PSU 2024 · Week 10 · very close · similar situation & rest	-3	20–13	W	U47.5
Very close	PSU @ MD 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & season form	-8.5	51–15	W	O50.5
Close	PSU @ WIS 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar spread & situation	-6.5	28–13	W	U47
Close	FLA @ UK 2021 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & season form	-7.5	13–20	L	U56.5
Close	MICH @ MSU 2021 · Week 9 · close · similar spread & situation	-4	33–37	L	O50.5
Close	MISS @ ARK 2024 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & situation	-8	63–31	W	O54
Close	ISU @ WVU 2021 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & total	-7.5	31–38	L	O49
Close	TA&M @ LSU 2021 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & situation	-6.25	24–27	L	O46.75

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TEX LLWLL	6-5	55%	1-2	6-5
TA&M LWLLL	3-7	30%	2-3	—

Venue/role: TEX away, as favorite; TA&M home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
TEX UUOUU	4-7	36%	10-1
TA&M OOOUO	7-3	70%	8-3

Stayed under: it needed 26 in the 4th quarter and got 0. 54% of games with totals 45.5–53.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TEX	9-1 90%	5-5 50%	4-6 40%
TA&M	8-2 80%	3-6 33%	7-2 78%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

TEX+19.1 →+23.7▲ 4.6#2

TA&M+13.5 →+12.6▼ 0.9#18

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW13

TEX

Longer bar = better

TA&M

#24

Offense

◀ TEX better

#43

Defense

◀ TEX better

#36

+0.6 #27

Turnovers

◀ TEX better

+0.4 #45

70 plays #27

Pace

◀ TEX faster

69 plays #44

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When TEX has the ball

Even matchup

	TEX off	TA&M def	Edge
Points / game	36.5 #14	21.5 #36	TEX
Yards / play	6.39 #26	5.43 #57	TEX
PPA / play	+0.21 #27	+0.05 #41	Even
Success rate	47% #27	36% #11	Even

When TA&M has the ball

Advantage: TEX defense

	TA&M off	TEX def	Edge
Points / game	32.5 #35	12.1 #2	TEX
Yards / play	6.05 #53	3.97 #1	TEX
PPA / play	+0.18 #41	−0.15 #2	TEX
Success rate	45% #41	37% #19	TEX

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

TEX scoring against the TA&M defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TEX scored	8.9 #13	12.5 #5	21.5 #7	7.5 #37	7.5 #57	15.0 #47
TA&M allowed	5.6 #82	3.3 #3	8.9 #19	5.4 #62	6.2 #58	11.5 #54

TA&M scoring against the TEX defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TA&M scored	7.7 #29	9.9 #40	17.6 #30	7.5 #37	6.5 #84	13.9 #63
TEX allowed	1.5 #3	4.1 #8	5.6 #1	3.1 #11	3.4 #6	6.5 #5

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.