USC vs Texas A&M: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (SRS Distribution Las Vegas Bowl, 2024)

Fri, Dec 27, 2024, 10:30 PM ESTSRS Distribution Las Vegas Bowl · Neutral site

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

USC

6-6 · Power #16

▲ winner

Final

Texas A&M

8-4 · Power #19

final

Closing spread

TA&M -3.5

✓ USC W

Total

56.5

▲ Over · 66 pts

Model before kickoff

USC 26–29 TA&M

✗ TA&M (57%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTA&M -1

CloseTA&M -3.5

Total50.5 → 56.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenTA&M -1

2.5 → TA&M

CloseTA&M -3.5

2.5 pts toward Texas A&M

Total

Open50.5

▲ 6

Close56.5

Up 6 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened TA&M -1 · closed TA&M -3.5 · moved 2.5 toward TA&Mmodel USC -1

model USC -1

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Neutral-site favorites of 1.5–5.5 since 2023: won 49%, covered 39% (47 games)ⓘ

Crossed 3The team the line moved toward covered 45% (58 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTA&M -1

CloseTA&M -3.5

Total50.5 → 56.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TA&M as a 3.5-point neutral-site favorite against USC, the favorite won 6, covered 6, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: USC won 35–31 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 66 points went over 56.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 58%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 3.4 against an average line of 3.7; 47.8 points a game (usually 53.1). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	WVU vs UNC 2023 · Postseason · close · similar season form & spread	-4	30–10	W	U61.75
Close	PSU vs UTAH 2022 · Postseason · close · similar total & situation	-1.5	35–21	W	O55
Close	MISS vs BAY 2021 · Postseason · close · similar situation & spread	-1	7–21	L	U60
Close	UL vs MRSH 2021 · Postseason · close · similar situation & rest	-4	36–21	W	O55.5
Loose	ARK vs PSU 2021 · Postseason · loose · similar season form	-3.5	24–10	W	U51
Loose	PSU vs MISS 2023 · Postseason · loose · similar situation & spread	-5.5	25–38	L	O52.5
Loose	OU vs ORE 2021 · Postseason · loose · similar situation & season form	-7	47–32	W	O64
Loose	UCF vs GT 2023 · Postseason · loose · similar rest & season form	-6.25	17–30	L	U66
Loose	TA&M vs ARK 2022 · Week 4 · loose · similar season form	-1.5	23–21	W	U51
Loose	UTSA vs TROY 2022 · Postseason · loose · similar rest & season form	-3	12–18	L	U56.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
USC WLWWL	7-5	58%	1-0	2-1
TA&M WLLLL	3-8	27%	0-1	3-7

Venue/role: USC neutral, as underdog; TA&M neutral, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
USC OUUUO	6-6	50%	6-6
TA&M OOUOU	7-4	64%	8-4

Went over in Q4. Of 347 earlier overs in games with totals 52.5–60.5, 34% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
USC	4-6 40%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%
TA&M	7-3 70%	3-6 33%	6-3 67%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

USC+10.9 →+13.4▲ 2.5#17

TA&M+13.5 →+12.4▼ 1.1#18

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW16

USC

Longer bar = better

TA&M

#32

Offense

◀ USC better

#54

#74

Defense

TA&M better ▶

#36

−0.2 #77

Turnovers

TA&M better ▶

+0.3 #45

69 plays #44

Pace

◀ USC faster

68 plays #60

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When USC has the ball

Even matchup

	USC off	TA&M def	Edge
Points / game	29.8 #52	21.2 #27	TA&M
Yards / play	6.37 #25	5.49 #65	USC
PPA / play	+0.18 #38	+0.06 #39	Even
Success rate	48% #13	37% #12	Even

When TA&M has the ball

Even matchup

	TA&M off	USC def	Edge
Points / game	30.3 #49	23.5 #56	Even
Yards / play	5.93 #57	5.80 #87	TA&M
PPA / play	+0.14 #61	+0.08 #62	Even
Success rate	44% #48	43% #90	TA&M

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

USC scoring against the TA&M defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
USC scored	4.6 #99	9.8 #36	14.4 #62	7.5 #32	7.8 #49	15.3 #36
TA&M allowed	5.8 #84	3.8 #6	9.6 #20	4.9 #49	5.7 #44	10.6 #40

TA&M scoring against the USC defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TA&M scored	7.1 #36	9.1 #53	16.2 #39	7.4 #35	5.9 #100	13.3 #67
USC allowed	4.2 #41	6.8 #51	10.9 #39	6.6 #97	5.8 #47	12.3 #66

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.