Boston College vs Nebraska: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Bad Boy Mowers Pinstripe Bowl, 2024)

Sat, Dec 28, 2024, 12:00 PM ESTBad Boy Mowers Pinstripe Bowl · Neutral site

Weather at kickoff40°F4 mphWet0.0 mmWet Over 45% of 309 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Boston College

7-5 · Power #58

final

Final

Nebraska

6-6 · Power #41

▲ winner

Closing spread

NEB -3.5

✓ NEB W

Total

47.5

▼ Under · 35 pts

Model before kickoff

BC 21–25 NEB

✓ NEB (60%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenNEB -3.5

CloseNEB -3.5

Total45.5 → 47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenNEB -3.5

no move

CloseNEB -3.5

No change since the open

Total

Open45.5

▲ 2

Close47.5

Up 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened NEB -3.5 · unchangedmodel NEB -4

model NEB -4

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Neutral-site favorites of 1.5–5.5 since 2023: won 47%, covered 38% (49 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenNEB -3.5

CloseNEB -3.5

Total45.5 → 47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like NEB as a 3.5-point neutral-site favorite against BC, the favorite won 5, covered 5, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: NEB won 20–15; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 35 points stayed under 47.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 58%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 2.4 against an average line of 4.6; 42.8 points a game (usually 53.1). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	TROY vs DUKE 2023 · Postseason · very close · similar rest & situation	-6.75	10–17	L	U44.25
Very close	UTAH vs NU 2023 · Postseason · very close · similar rest & season form	-6.5	7–14	L	U44
Close	MINN vs WVU 2021 · Postseason · close · similar team ratings & situation	-5.75	18–6	W	U44.75
Close	UL vs MRSH 2021 · Postseason · close · similar rest & spread	-4	36–21	W	O55.5
Close	AFA vs ARMY 2021 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	14–21	L	U37.5
Close	FRES vs WSU 2022 · Postseason · close · similar rest & situation	-5.5	29–6	W	U54
Close	SJSU vs EMU 2022 · Postseason · close · similar rest & situation	-3.5	27–41	L	O54
Close	ND vs SC 2022 · Postseason · close · similar situation & season form	-5	45–38	W	O50.5
Close	ND vs BYU 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar spread & season form	-3.5	28–20	W	U51.5
Close	UTSA vs TROY 2022 · Postseason · close · similar situation & rest	-3	12–18	L	U56.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
BC WWWWW	8-4	67%	—	5-2
NEB WLLWW	6-4	60%	—	4-2

Venue/role: BC neutral, as underdog; NEB neutral, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
BC OOOOO	7-5	58%	7-5
NEB UOUOU	4-6	40%	6-6

Stayed under: it needed 26 in the 4th quarter and got 13. 54% of games with totals 43.5–51.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BC	5-5 50%	6-4 60%	6-4 60%
NEB	4-6 40%	6-4 60%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

BC−1.3 →+2.9▲ 4.2#57

NEB+2.3 →+6.4▲ 4.1#41

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW16

Longer bar = better

NEB

#82

Offense

Even

#77

#60

Defense

Even

#49

+0.7 #23

Turnovers

◀ BC better

−0.1 #70

66 plays #79

Pace

NEB faster ▶

68 plays #57

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When BC has the ball

Advantage: NEB defense

	BC off	NEB def	Edge
Points / game	29.3 #57	19.8 #17	NEB
Yards / play	5.56 #83	5.39 #54	NEB
PPA / play	+0.09 #91	+0.10 #70	NEB
Success rate	41% #95	40% #55	NEB

When NEB has the ball

Even matchup

	NEB off	BC def	Edge
Points / game	23.8 #101	24.1 #61	BC
Yards / play	5.26 #109	5.48 #64	BC
PPA / play	+0.15 #55	+0.06 #42	Even
Success rate	45% #43	42% #72	NEB

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

BC scoring against the NEB defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BC scored	4.3 #101	11.5 #18	15.8 #43	7.7 #26	5.8 #103	13.5 #67
NEB allowed	4.0 #32	4.3 #8	8.3 #9	4.8 #46	6.2 #56	11.0 #45

NEB scoring against the BC defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NEB scored	5.2 #82	9.7 #40	14.8 #51	3.8 #118	5.2 #115	9.0 #123
BC allowed	3.1 #12	9.0 #99	12.1 #55	4.6 #39	7.4 #84	12.0 #60

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.