Nebraska @ Iowa: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 14, 2024)

Fri, Nov 29, 2024, 7:30 PM ESTWeek 14 · at Iowa · Conference game

Weather at kickoff20°F9 mphgusts 17DryCold Over 50% of 115 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Nebraska

6-5 · Power #41

final

Final

Iowa

7-4 · Power #30

▲ winner

Closing spread

IOWA -3.5

✓ NEB W

Total

41.5

▼ Under · 23 pts

Model before kickoff

NEB 18–22 IOWA

✓ IOWA (62%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenIOWA -5

CloseIOWA -3.5

Total39.5 → 41.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenIOWA -5

1.5 → NEB

CloseIOWA -3.5

1.5 pts toward Nebraska

Total

Open39.5

▲ 2

Close41.5

Up 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened IOWA -5 · closed IOWA -3.5 · moved 1.5 toward NEBmodel IOWA -7.5

model IOWA -7.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 2.5–4.5 since 2023: won 57%, covered 48% (196 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 53% (127 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenIOWA -5

CloseIOWA -3.5

Total39.5 → 41.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like IOWA as a 3.5-point home favorite against NEB, the favorite won 6, covered 5, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: IOWA won 13–10; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 23 points stayed under 41.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 58%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 3 against an average line of 2.7; 41.6 points a game (usually 53.1). Of the 2 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	RUTG vs WIS 2024 · Week 7 · very close · similar season form & rest	-1.25	7–42	L	O43.5
Very close	IOWA vs MINN 2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & rest	-4	27–22	W	O37
Very close	UK vs AUB 2024 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & spread	-2	10–24	L	U43.5
Very close	KSU vs WVU 2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & rest	-6	34–17	W	O47
Very close	WISC vs MINN 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & rest	-3	16–23	L	O37
Very close	BAY vs WVU 2021 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & situation	-1	45–20	W	O45
Very close	IOWA vs WIS 2024 · Week 10 · very close · similar situation & spread	-2.5	42–10	W	O40.5
Close	PUR vs MINN 2021 · Week 5 · close · similar season form & rest	-2.5	13–20	L	U46
Close	ILL vs IOWA 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	9–6	L	U36.5
Close	M-OH vs NIU 2024 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & total	-1.5	20–9	W	U43

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NEB LWLLW	5-4	56%	2-2	1-2
IOWA LWWLW	5-5	50%	3-2	5-4

Venue/role: NEB away, as underdog; IOWA home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
NEB OUOUO	4-5	44%	6-5
IOWA OOOUO	8-2	80%	7-4

Stayed under: it needed 29 in the 4th quarter and got 10. 57% of games with totals 37.5–45.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NEB	5-5 50%	5-4 56%	4-5 44%
IOWA	6-4 60%	5-5 50%	8-2 80%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

NEB 0–1 IOWA IOWA leads · 1 game since 2023 · IOWA has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 24 2023	Iowa 13 @ Nebraska 10	—	—

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

NEB+2.3 →+5.6▲ 3.3#41

IOWA+2.5 →+10.0▲ 7.5#24

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW13

NEB

Longer bar = better

IOWA

#74

Offense

Even

#64

#63

Defense

IOWA better ▶

#34

+0.1 #59

Turnovers

IOWA better ▶

+1.0 #7

68 plays #63

Pace

◀ NEB faster

60 plays #127

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When NEB has the ball

Advantage: IOWA defense

	NEB off	IOWA def	Edge
Points / game	25.1 #94	17.7 #13	IOWA
Yards / play	5.34 #102	5.01 #30	IOWA
PPA / play	+0.16 #55	+0.02 #26	IOWA
Success rate	45% #46	41% #66	Even

When IOWA has the ball

Even matchup

	IOWA off	NEB def	Edge
Points / game	29.4 #55	20.5 #27	NEB
Yards / play	5.74 #71	5.48 #64	Even
PPA / play	+0.14 #65	+0.12 #83	Even
Success rate	43% #64	42% #76	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

NEB scoring against the IOWA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NEB scored	5.4 #76	9.9 #39	15.3 #49	4.2 #112	5.6 #107	9.8 #117
IOWA allowed	1.5 #3	6.2 #35	7.6 #7	5.0 #49	5.1 #36	10.1 #32

IOWA scoring against the NEB defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
IOWA scored	3.6 #118	5.9 #118	9.5 #121	10.5 #6	9.4 #16	19.8 #2
NEB allowed	4.4 #48	4.6 #12	9.0 #20	5.0 #49	5.8 #53	10.8 #43

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.