Purdue @ Indiana: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 14, 2024)

Sat, Nov 30, 2024, 7:00 PM ESTWeek 14 · at Indiana · Conference game

Weather at kickoff27°F7 mphgusts 16Wet0.0 mmWet Over 45% of 309 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Purdue

1-10 · Power #117

final

Final

Indiana

10-1 · Power #10

▲ winner

Closing spread

IU -28.5

✓ IU W

Total

56.5

▲ Over · 66 pts

Model before kickoff

PUR 13–42 IU

✓ IU (98%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenIU -28.5

CloseIU -28.5

Total56.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenIU -28.5

no move

CloseIU -28.5

No change since the open

Total

Open56.5

no move

Close56.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened IU -28.5 · unchangedmodel IU -32

model IU -32

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 26.5–30.5 since 2023: won 98%, covered 52% (58 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenIU -28.5

CloseIU -28.5

Total56.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like IU as a 28.5-point home favorite against PUR, the favorite won 10, covered 2, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: IU won 66–0; the favorite covered, as in 2 of the 10 similar games. 66 points went over 56.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Normal range · usually 95%

Favorite covered

2 of 1020%

Below normal · usually 56%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 57%

Covers below normal. Splits like this often fade, so treat it as context, not a pick. Average result: favorite by 20.7 against an average line of 26.9; 51.9 points a game (usually 56.3). Of the 2 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	AUB vs GAST 2021 · Week 4 · very close · similar total & rest	-27.5	34–24	L	O57.5
Very close	CIN vs USF 2022 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & total	-27	28–24	L	U58.5
Close	WASH vs ASU 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar spread & situation	-28	15–7	L	U60
Close	APP vs GASO 2021 · Week 13 · close · similar situation & rest	-24.5	27–3	L	U55
Close	ORE vs ARIZ 2021 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & total	-29.5	41–19	L	O58.75
Close	FRES vs UNLV 2021 · Week 4 · close · similar spread & season form	-30	38–30	L	O59
Close	JMU vs USM 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & total	-24	32–15	L	U54
Close	TENN vs VAN 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar total & situation	-27	48–24	L	O57.25
Close	TXST vs USM 2024 · Week 12 · close · similar situation & total	-27.5	58–3	W	O56.5
Close	UTAH vs STAN 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar situation & rest	-24	42–7	W	U54

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
PUR LLLLW	3-8	27%	2-3	2-7
IU WWWLL	8-3	73%	5-2	8-2

Venue/role: PUR away, as underdog; IU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
PUR UOUOU	6-5	55%	1-10
IU OUOUO	8-3	73%	10-1

Went over in Q4. Of 337 earlier overs in games with totals 52.5–60.5, 34% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
PUR	0-10 0%	2-8 20%	6-4 60%
IU	9-1 90%	8-2 80%	8-2 80%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

PUR 75–44 IU (6 tied) PUR leads · 125 games since 1892 · IU has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 25 2023	Indiana 31 @ Purdue 35	PUR -6.5	IU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

PUR+1.0 →−10.3▼ 11.3#107

IU−3.2 →+16.3▲ 19.5#11

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW13

PUR

Longer bar = better

#99

Offense

IU better ▶

#130

Defense

IU better ▶

#12

−0.8 #127

Turnovers

IU better ▶

+0.9 #13

57 plays #135

Pace

IU faster ▶

65 plays #87

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When PUR has the ball

Advantage: IU defense

	PUR off	IU def	Edge
Points / game	17.2 #132	16.0 #9	IU
Yards / play	5.58 #83	4.31 #3	IU
PPA / play	+0.07 #98	−0.03 #11	IU
Success rate	42% #81	38% #24	IU

When IU has the ball

Advantage: IU offense

	IU off	PUR def	Edge
Points / game	41.3 #2	37.5 #129	IU
Yards / play	6.55 #17	6.66 #128	IU
PPA / play	+0.30 #9	+0.36 #137	IU
Success rate	53% #1	48% #127	IU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

PUR scoring against the IU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
PUR scored	1.2 #134	3.6 #133	4.8 #134	4.6 #102	7.2 #69	11.8 #93
IU allowed	1.2 #2	6.9 #57	8.1 #8	4.6 #41	3.3 #4	7.9 #9

IU scoring against the PUR defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
IU scored	9.2 #10	12.3 #10	21.5 #6	8.4 #22	11.5 #4	19.8 #2
PUR allowed	8.8 #128	10.1 #113	18.9 #124	7.8 #115	9.6 #122	17.5 #123

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.