Maryland @ Penn State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 14, 2024)

Sat, Nov 30, 2024, 3:30 PM ESTWeek 14 · at Penn State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff26°F11 mphgusts 23DryCold Over 50% of 115 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Maryland

4-7 · Power #62

final

Final

Penn State

10-1 · Power #6

▲ winner

Closing spread

PSU -26.5

✓ PSU W

Total

50.5

▲ Over · 51 pts

Model before kickoff

MD 12–37 PSU

✓ PSU (97%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenPSU -24

ClosePSU -26.5

Total49.5 → 50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenPSU -24

2.5 → PSU

ClosePSU -26.5

2.5 pts toward Penn State

Total

Open49.5

▲ 1

Close50.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened PSU -24 · closed PSU -26.5 · moved 2.5 toward PSUmodel PSU -22.5

model PSU -22.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 25.5–27.5 since 2023: won 98%, covered 49% (47 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 52% (108 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenPSU -24

ClosePSU -26.5

Total49.5 → 50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like PSU as a 26.5-point home favorite against MD, the favorite won 10, covered 7, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: PSU won 44–7; the favorite covered, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 51 points went over 50.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Normal range · usually 94%

Favorite covered

7 of 978%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 52%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 26.2 against an average line of 24.5; 49.4 points a game (usually 54.5). Of the 1 over, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	UTAH vs STAN 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & season form	-24	42–7	W	U54
Very close	FSU vs UL 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar total & rest	-25	49–17	W	O52.5
Close	MICH vs NU 2021 · Week 8 · close · similar total & situation	-23.5	33–7	W	U51
Close	ALA vs AUB 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar situation & rest	-22	49–27	P	O51
Close	UTAH vs COLO 2021 · Week 13 · close · similar situation & rest	-24	28–13	L	U52.5
Close	OSU vs MINN 2023 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & season form	-27.5	37–3	W	U51.5
Close	PSU vs UCLA 2024 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & situation	-29.5	27–11	L	U47.5
Close	TEX vs FLA 2024 · Week 11 · close · similar situation & total	-23	49–17	W	O48.5
Close	WISC vs NU 2021 · Week 11 · close · similar situation & rest	-25.5	35–7	W	O41.5
Close	MICH vs IU 2021 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & situation	-20.5	29–7	W	U51

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MD WLWLL	3-7	30%	1-2	2-3
PSU WLWWL	4-6	40%	1-4	4-5

Venue/role: MD away, as underdog; PSU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MD OOUUO	8-2	80%	4-7
PSU UUUOO	4-6	40%	10-1

Went over in Q4. Of 382 earlier overs in games with totals 46.5–54.5, 34% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MD	3-7 30%	2-7 22%	7-2 78%
PSU	9-1 90%	3-6 33%	4-5 44%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

MD 0–1 PSU PSU leads · 1 game since 2023 · PSU has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 4 2023	Penn State 51 @ Maryland 15	PSU -7.5	PSU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MD+6.6 →+1.9▼ 4.7#61

PSU+18.8 →+19.6▲ 0.8#9

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW13

Longer bar = better

PSU

#94

Offense

PSU better ▶

#15

#84

Defense

PSU better ▶

#12

−0.1 #79

Turnovers

PSU better ▶

+0.5 #39

73 plays #8

Pace

◀ MD faster

64 plays #102

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MD has the ball

Advantage: PSU defense

	MD off	PSU def	Edge
Points / game	25.2 #93	14.6 #7	PSU
Yards / play	5.50 #89	4.58 #7	PSU
PPA / play	+0.07 #100	0.00 #18	PSU
Success rate	42% #92	37% #17	PSU

When PSU has the ball

Advantage: PSU offense

	PSU off	MD def	Edge
Points / game	32.4 #38	29.2 #96	PSU
Yards / play	6.97 #5	5.64 #72	PSU
PPA / play	+0.28 #13	+0.12 #82	PSU
Success rate	52% #5	43% #86	PSU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

MD scoring against the PSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MD scored	4.6 #94	6.2 #112	10.8 #111	6.1 #67	8.3 #41	14.4 #60
PSU allowed	3.7 #28	5.9 #26	9.6 #25	1.4 #2	3.6 #6	5.0 #2

PSU scoring against the MD defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
PSU scored	5.0 #87	11.1 #22	16.1 #38	8.8 #17	7.2 #68	16.0 #30
MD allowed	5.0 #64	9.9 #111	14.9 #96	5.4 #61	8.9 #112	14.3 #100

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.