Wisconsin @ Nebraska: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 13, 2024)

Sat, Nov 23, 2024, 3:30 PM ESTWeek 13 · at Nebraska · Conference game

Weather at kickoff54°F8 mphgusts 17DryWeather watch ›

Wisconsin

5-5 · Power #47

final

Final

Nebraska

5-5 · Power #41

▲ winner

Closing spread

NEB -1.5

✓ NEB W

Total

40.5

▲ Over · 69 pts

Model before kickoff

WIS 20–21 NEB

✓ NEB (54%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenNEB -2

CloseNEB -1.5

Total42.5 → 40.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenNEB -2

0.5 → WIS

CloseNEB -1.5

0.5 pts toward Wisconsin

Total

Open42.5

▼ 2

Close40.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened NEB -2 · closed NEB -1.5 · moved 0.5 toward WISmodel Pick’em

model Pick’em

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 0.5–2.5 since 2023: won 50%, covered 47% (123 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenNEB -2

CloseNEB -1.5

Total42.5 → 40.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like NEB as a 1.5-point home favorite against WIS, the favorite won 6, covered 6, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: NEB won 44–25; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 69 points went over 40.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 56%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 0.1 against an average line of 2.4; 45.9 points a game (usually 53.3). Of the 5 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	IOWA vs WIS 2024 · Week 10 · very close · similar total & rest	-2.5	42–10	W	O40.5
Very close	VT vs NCSU 2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & situation	-2.5	28–35	L	O41
Very close	UK vs AUB 2024 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & spread	-2	10–24	L	U43.5
Very close	IOWA vs PUR 2023 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	20–14	W	U38.5
Very close	UK vs LOU 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & season form	-3.5	26–13	W	U42.5
Very close	ARK vs AUB 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & situation	-2.5	10–48	L	O47
Very close	AUB vs TA&M 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & spread	-1.5	13–10	W	U48.5
Very close	NEB vs IOWA 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & rest	-1.25	21–28	L	O41
Very close	MICH vs MSU 2024 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & total	-3.5	24–17	W	O39
Very close	SYR vs WAKE 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & spread	-2	35–31	W	O43.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
WIS WWLLW	4-6	40%	2-2	2-4
NEB WLWLL	4-4	50%	2-2	3-2

Venue/role: WIS away, as underdog; NEB home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
WIS OUUOU	5-5	50%	5-5
NEB UOUOU	3-5	38%	5-5

Went over in Q3. Of 125 earlier overs in games with totals 36.5–44.5, 30% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
WIS	5-5 50%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%
NEB	5-5 50%	4-4 50%	3-5 38%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

WIS 1–0 NEB WIS leads · 1 game since 2023 · WIS has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 18 2023	Nebraska 17 @ Wisconsin 24	WIS -7	P

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

WIS+5.7 →+6.9▲ 1.2#38

NEB+2.3 →+4.6▲ 2.3#49

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW12

WIS

Longer bar = better

NEB

#91

Offense

Even

#89

#58

Defense

Even

#55

−0.5 #108

Turnovers

NEB better ▶

0.0 #68

68 plays #60

Pace

Even

67 plays #68

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When WIS has the ball

Advantage: NEB defense

	WIS off	NEB def	Edge
Points / game	23.9 #100	20.0 #25	NEB
Yards / play	5.37 #101	5.30 #49	NEB
PPA / play	+0.08 #98	+0.13 #85	Even
Success rate	44% #65	41% #62	Even

When NEB has the ball

Advantage: WIS defense

	NEB off	WIS def	Edge
Points / game	23.2 #103	20.9 #34	WIS
Yards / play	5.23 #112	5.33 #53	WIS
PPA / play	+0.14 #68	+0.14 #88	Even
Success rate	43% #71	41% #56	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

WIS scoring against the NEB defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WIS scored	5.8 #66	6.5 #107	12.3 #91	6.1 #66	5.5 #109	11.6 #96
NEB allowed	4.1 #45	4.8 #14	8.9 #20	4.8 #47	5.6 #45	10.4 #37

NEB scoring against the WIS defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NEB scored	5.2 #83	9.2 #50	14.4 #64	3.6 #121	5.2 #115	8.8 #122
WIS allowed	2.0 #6	5.4 #24	7.4 #7	6.2 #86	7.3 #85	13.5 #89

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.