Nebraska @ USC: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 12, 2024)

Sat, Nov 16, 2024, 4:00 PM ESTWeek 12 · at USC · Conference game

Weather at kickoff68°F4 mphgusts 15DryWeather watch ›

Nebraska

5-4 · Power #41

final

Final

USC

4-5 · Power #16

▲ winner

Closing spread

USC -6.5

✓ USC W

Total

50.5

▼ Under · 48 pts

Model before kickoff

NEB 21–29 USC

✓ USC (72%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUSC -9.5

CloseUSC -6.5

Total50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenUSC -9.5

3 → NEB

CloseUSC -6.5

3 pts toward Nebraska

Total

Open50.5

no move

Close50.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened USC -9.5 · closed USC -6.5 · moved 3 toward NEBmodel USC -14

model USC -14

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 5.5–7.5 since 2023: won 68%, covered 56% (133 games)ⓘ

Crossed 7The team the line moved toward covered 62% (21 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUSC -9.5

CloseUSC -6.5

Total50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like USC as a 6.5-point home favorite against NEB, the favorite won 6, covered 4, and 8 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: USC won 28–20; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 48 points stayed under 50.5, as in 2 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 66%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 8.3 against an average line of 5.9; 59.7 points a game (usually 53.7). Of the 5 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	TTU vs BAY 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & spread	-4.5	35–59	L	O56
Close	TCU vs BYU 2023 · Week 7 · close · similar total & season form	-5	44–11	W	O52.5
Close	FLA vs ARK 2023 · Week 10 · close · similar situation & total	-3.5	36–39	L	O49.5
Close	LOU vs JMU 2022 · Week 10 · close · similar spread	-6.5	34–10	W	U53.5
Close	TA&M vs MSST 2021 · Week 5 · close · similar spread & situation	-7	22–26	L	O45.5
Close	ARK vs MSST 2021 · Week 10 · close · similar situation & season form	-4	31–28	L	O53.5
Close	LOU vs VT 2023 · Week 10 · close · similar situation & total	-9.75	34–3	W	U48.5
Close	KU vs HOU 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & situation	-4.5	42–14	W	O45.5
Close	KSU vs ISU 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar situation & team ratings	-9.5	35–42	L	O46.25
Close	CIN vs ECU 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar situation & spread	-4.5	27–25	L	O51.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NEB WWLWL	4-3	57%	2-1	1-1
USC LWLWL	5-4	56%	4-0	3-4

Venue/role: NEB away, as underdog; USC home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
NEB UUOUO	3-4	43%	5-4
USC UOOOU	5-4	56%	4-5

Stayed under: it needed 10 in the 4th quarter and got 7. 54% of games with totals 46.5–54.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NEB	5-5 50%	4-3 57%	3-4 43%
USC	5-5 50%	6-4 60%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

NEB+2.3 →+4.4▲ 2.1#49

USC+10.9 →+13.8▲ 2.9#15

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW11

NEB

Longer bar = better

USC

#88

Offense

USC better ▶

#32

#44

Defense

◀ NEB better

#63

0.0 #67

Turnovers

◀ NEB better

−0.2 #85

67 plays #65

Pace

USC faster ▶

69 plays #41

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When NEB has the ball

Advantage: USC defense

	NEB off	USC def	Edge
Points / game	23.6 #103	22.2 #47	USC
Yards / play	5.26 #109	5.66 #75	USC
PPA / play	+0.14 #70	+0.06 #47	USC
Success rate	44% #70	43% #84	Even

When USC has the ball

Even matchup

	USC off	NEB def	Edge
Points / game	30.6 #49	19.1 #22	NEB
Yards / play	6.34 #34	5.14 #40	Even
PPA / play	+0.21 #33	+0.09 #62	USC
Success rate	48% #13	40% #51	USC

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

NEB scoring against the USC defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NEB scored	5.0 #86	9.4 #45	14.4 #63	3.3 #123	5.8 #101	9.1 #120
USC allowed	3.7 #29	7.4 #65	11.1 #48	4.7 #42	6.1 #61	10.8 #42

USC scoring against the NEB defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
USC scored	5.0 #86	10.1 #38	15.1 #56	8.4 #25	7.0 #68	15.4 #40
NEB allowed	3.8 #36	4.6 #12	8.3 #13	4.6 #41	5.4 #46	10.0 #28

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.