USC @ Washington: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 10, 2024)

Sat, Nov 2, 2024, 7:30 PM EDTWeek 10 · at Washington · Conference game

Weather at kickoff51°F14 mphgusts 22DryWeather watch ›

USC

4-4 · Power #16

final

Final

Washington

4-4 · Power #31

▲ winner

Closing spread

USC -2.5

✓ WASH W

Total

55.5

▼ Under · 47 pts

Model before kickoff

USC 26–24 WASH

✗ USC (57%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUSC -2

CloseUSC -2.5

Total55.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenUSC -2

0.5 → USC

CloseUSC -2.5

0.5 pts toward USC

Total

Open55.5

no move

Close55.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened USC -2 · closed USC -2.5 · moved 0.5 toward USCmodel USC -2.5 matches the line

model USC -2.5 = line ✓

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 56%, covered 47% (123 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUSC -2

CloseUSC -2.5

Total55.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like USC as a 2.5-point road favorite at WASH, the favorite won 6, covered 4, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: WASH won 26–21 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 47 points stayed under 55.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

4 of 944%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 48%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: underdog by 2.4 against an average line of 2.8; 54 points a game (usually 53.1). Of the 1 over, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	TENN @ MIZ 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & rest	-2	7–36	L	U58.75
Very close	TCU @ BAY 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar situation & rest	-2	29–28	L	U58
Very close	TEX @ KSU 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar total & situation	-3	34–27	W	O54.5
Very close	UNC @ NCSU 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar total & rest	-2.5	20–39	L	O55.5
Very close	WASH @ WSU 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & rest	-2.5	51–33	W	O60
Very close	ARK @ LSU 2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & season form	-3	16–13	P	U59.5
Very close	ASU @ ORST 2021 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & rest	-3	10–24	L	U59
Very close	NCST @ FSU 2021 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & situation	-3	28–14	W	U55
Very close	MSU @ PUR 2021 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	29–40	L	O53.5
Very close	CLEM @ FSU 2022 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & spread	-4.5	34–28	W	O51

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
USC WLWLW	5-3	63%	0-3	3-3
WASH –LWLL	2-4	33%	2-1	0-3

Venue/role: USC away, as favorite; WASH home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
USC OUOOO	5-3	63%	4-4
WASH –UOOU	2-4	33%	4-4

Stayed under: it needed 15 in the 4th quarter and got 6. 52% of games with totals 51.5–59.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
USC	5-5 50%	6-4 60%	6-4 60%
WASH	5-5 50%	3-5 38%	3-5 38%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

USC 0–1 WASH WASH leads · 1 game since 2023 · WASH has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 4 2023	Washington 52 @ USC 42	WASH -3	WASH W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

USC+10.9 →+14.6▲ 3.7#15

WASH+12.9 →+10.2▼ 2.7#22

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW9

USC

Longer bar = better

WASH

#29

Offense

Even

#40

#67

Defense

WASH better ▶

#21

+0.1 #62

Turnovers

Even

0.0 #75

68 plays #59

Pace

◀ USC faster

66 plays #73

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When USC has the ball

Even matchup

	USC off	WASH def	Edge
Points / game	31.8 #44	18.8 #23	WASH
Yards / play	6.42 #34	4.43 #5	WASH
PPA / play	+0.24 #24	−0.01 #19	Even
Success rate	49% #12	39% #38	USC

When WASH has the ball

Advantage: WASH offense

	WASH off	USC def	Edge
Points / game	23.3 #103	21.8 #45	USC
Yards / play	6.57 #25	5.69 #81	WASH
PPA / play	+0.26 #20	+0.05 #46	WASH
Success rate	50% #10	43% #95	WASH

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

USC scoring against the WASH defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
USC scored	5.6 #77	10.5 #30	16.1 #49	7.8 #35	7.9 #48	15.6 #38
WASH allowed	3.4 #25	7.4 #67	10.8 #44	3.8 #21	4.3 #19	8.0 #14

WASH scoring against the USC defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WASH scored	3.0 #123	9.4 #51	12.4 #95	5.4 #83	5.5 #106	10.9 #104
USC allowed	2.9 #17	7.1 #62	10.0 #29	5.3 #53	6.1 #67	11.4 #58

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.