Georgia Southern @ South Alabama: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 10, 2024)

Sat, Nov 2, 2024, 7:30 PM EDTWeek 10 · at South Alabama · Conference game

Weather at kickoff76°F8 mphgusts 14DryWeather watch ›

Georgia Southern

5-3 · Power #90

▲ winner

Final

South Alabama

4-4 · Power #66

final

Closing spread

USA -5.5

✓ GASO W

Total

59.5

▲ Over · 64 pts

Model before kickoff

GASO 26–33 USA

✗ USA (68%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUSA -6

CloseUSA -5.5

Total61.5 → 59.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenUSA -6

0.5 → GASO

CloseUSA -5.5

0.5 pts toward Georgia Southern

Total

Open61.5

▼ 2

Close59.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened USA -6 · closed USA -5.5 · moved 0.5 toward GASOmodel USA -11

model USA -11

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 4.5–6.5 since 2023: won 70%, covered 57% (97 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUSA -6

CloseUSA -5.5

Total61.5 → 59.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like USA as a 5.5-point home favorite against GASO, the favorite won 9, covered 7, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: GASO won 34–30 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 64 points went over 59.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 63%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 12.3 against an average line of 5.9; 57.9 points a game (usually 53.1). Of the 2 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	UNLV vs CSU 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar total & spread	-6.5	25–23	L	U60
Very close	TULN vs USF 2024 · Week 5 · very close · similar total & rest	-4	45–10	W	U60.5
Very close	UAB vs UNT 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & spread	-6.5	41–21	W	O58
Very close	TOL vs KENT 2022 · Week 7 · very close · similar season form & rest	-7	52–31	W	O62.5
Very close	HOU vs MEM 2021 · Week 12 · very close · similar situation & total	-9.5	31–13	W	U59.25
Very close	CMU vs EMU 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & rest	-8.5	31–10	W	U63.5
Very close	TULN vs MEM 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & season form	-7	38–28	W	O55.5
Very close	MEM vs BOIS 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & total	-3.5	35–32	L	O59.5
Very close	FRES vs BOIS 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar season form & situation	-2.5	37–30	W	O54.5
Very close	WAKE vs GT 2023 · Week 4 · very close · similar total & rest	-3.5	16–30	L	U58.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
GASO LWLWL	5-3	63%	2-2	4-1
USA –LLWW	3-4	43%	3-1	3-3

Venue/role: GASO away, as underdog; USA home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
GASO UOUUO	4-4	50%	5-3
USA –UUUO	3-4	43%	4-4

Went over in Q4. Of 193 earlier overs in games with totals 55.5–63.5, 31% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
GASO	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%
USA	5-5 50%	4-5 44%	5-4 56%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

GASO−6.0 →−6.3▼ 0.3#95

USA+0.8 →+0.9▲ 0.1#66

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW9

GASO

Longer bar = better

USA

#81

Offense

USA better ▶

#15

#114

Defense

USA better ▶

#72

−0.4 #98

Turnovers

USA better ▶

+1.3 #11

70 plays #29

Pace

◀ GASO faster

67 plays #67

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When GASO has the ball

Even matchup

	GASO off	USA def	Edge
Points / game	28.6 #66	23.6 #67	Even
Yards / play	5.40 #97	6.04 #102	Even
PPA / play	+0.13 #72	+0.08 #56	Even
Success rate	42% #88	41% #64	USA

When USA has the ball

Advantage: USA offense

	USA off	GASO def	Edge
Points / game	36.3 #22	30.5 #107	USA
Yards / play	6.78 #19	6.61 #126	USA
PPA / play	+0.34 #10	+0.19 #109	USA
Success rate	51% #8	46% #115	USA

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

GASO scoring against the USA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
GASO scored	4.8 #94	9.8 #44	14.5 #62	6.8 #59	7.4 #63	14.1 #53
USA allowed	6.4 #96	7.3 #64	13.6 #85	4.8 #45	5.3 #46	10.0 #31

USA scoring against the GASO defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
USA scored	6.4 #63	11.9 #14	18.3 #30	11.9 #3	6.1 #86	18.0 #13
GASO allowed	8.9 #127	6.9 #54	15.8 #104	9.3 #128	5.5 #53	14.8 #108

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.