Louisiana Tech @ Sam Houston: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 10, 2024)

Tue, Oct 29, 2024, 8:00 PM EDTWeek 10 · at Sam Houston · Conference game

Weather at kickoff78°F12 mphgusts 27DryWindy Over 48% of 274 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Louisiana Tech

3-4 · Power #112

final

Final

Sam Houston

6-2 · Power #93

▲ winner

Closing spread

SHSU -10.5

✓ LT W

Total

45.5

▼ Under · 12 pts

Model before kickoff

LT 17–27 SHSU

✓ SHSU (77%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenSHSU -9.5

CloseSHSU -10.5

Total46.5 → 45.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenSHSU -9.5

1 → SHSU

CloseSHSU -10.5

1 pt toward Sam Houston

Total

Open46.5

▼ 1

Close45.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened SHSU -9.5 · closed SHSU -10.5 · moved 1 toward SHSUmodel SHSU -10.5 matches the line

model SHSU -10.5 = line ✓

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 9.5–11.5 since 2023: won 76%, covered 40% (75 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 52% (75 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenSHSU -9.5

CloseSHSU -10.5

Total46.5 → 45.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like SHSU as a 10.5-point home favorite against LT, the favorite won 7, covered 4, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: SHSU won 9–3; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 12 points stayed under 45.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 75%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 52%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 7.2 against an average line of 10; 44 points a game (usually 55.2). Of the 3 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	NIU vs EMU 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & season form	-12	20–13	L	U43.5
Very close	TROY vs ARMY 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & season form	-8.5	10–9	L	U45.5
Very close	ARMY vs CONN 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & spread	-10.5	34–17	W	O45
Very close	LIB vs VT 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & rest	-10.5	22–23	L	U46.25
Very close	NIU vs BALL 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & rest	-9.5	17–20	L	U43
Very close	CMU vs WMU 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & spread	-10	10–12	L	U48.75
Very close	CONN vs RICE 2024 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-6.5	17–10	W	U47
Very close	MRSH vs GAST 2024 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & team ratings	-9.5	35–20	W	O51.5
Very close	WYO vs UNM 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & season form	-14	35–26	L	O41
Very close	ECU vs TEM 2024 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & spread	-8.5	56–34	W	O48.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
LT LLWLL	2-4	33%	1-2	1-0
SHSU WWWLL	4-3	57%	1-1	2-2

Venue/role: LT away, as underdog; SHSU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
LT UUOOU	3-3	50%	3-4
SHSU UOOUU	3-4	43%	6-2

Stayed under: it needed 34 in the 4th quarter and got 0. 54% of games with totals 41.5–49.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
LT	3-7 30%	2-7 22%	6-3 67%
SHSU	7-3 70%	6-3 67%	3-6 33%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

LT 0–1 SHSU SHSU leads · 1 game since 2023 · SHSU has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 11 2023	Sam Houston 42 @ Louisiana Tech 27	LT -7.5	SHSU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

LT−10.2 →−12.4▼ 2.2#116

SHSU−10.8 →−5.2▲ 5.6#91

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW9

Longer bar = better

SHSU

#116

Offense

SHSU better ▶

#91

#20

Defense

◀ LT better

#57

−0.7 #111

Turnovers

SHSU better ▶

+0.5 #37

69 plays #40

Pace

SHSU faster ▶

71 plays #25

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When LT has the ball

Advantage: SHSU defense

	LT off	SHSU def	Edge
Points / game	23.9 #101	22.6 #58	SHSU
Yards / play	5.07 #115	5.12 #41	SHSU
PPA / play	0.00 #120	+0.07 #52	SHSU
Success rate	36% #126	42% #75	SHSU

When SHSU has the ball

Advantage: LT defense

	SHSU off	LT def	Edge
Points / game	26.9 #82	21.6 #40	LT
Yards / play	5.29 #107	4.71 #15	LT
PPA / play	+0.11 #83	−0.01 #20	LT
Success rate	42% #91	34% #4	LT

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

LT scoring against the SHSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LT scored	4.1 #104	9.3 #56	13.4 #83	3.9 #111	5.7 #102	9.6 #117
SHSU allowed	5.8 #80	5.9 #39	11.6 #63	5.6 #64	5.4 #44	11.0 #48

SHSU scoring against the LT defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SHSU scored	5.6 #76	9.5 #51	15.1 #56	7.3 #48	4.5 #118	11.8 #95
LT allowed	6.4 #98	2.7 #3	9.1 #27	6.4 #87	4.3 #22	10.7 #45

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.