Rice @ UConn: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 9, 2024)

Sat, Oct 26, 2024, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 9 · at UConn

Weather at kickoff60°F12 mphgusts 26DryWindy Over 48% of 274 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Rice

2-5 · Power #104

final

Final

UConn

4-3 · Power #80

▲ winner

Closing spread

CONN -6.5

✓ CONN W

Total

45.5

▼ Under · 27 pts

Model before kickoff

RICE 19–26 CONN

✓ CONN (69%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenCONN -6.5

CloseCONN -6.5

Total45.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenCONN -6.5

no move

CloseCONN -6.5

No change since the open

Total

Open45.5

no move

Close45.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened CONN -6.5 · unchangedmodel CONN -9

model CONN -9

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 5.5–7.5 since 2023: won 67%, covered 55% (110 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenCONN -6.5

CloseCONN -6.5

Total45.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like CONN as a 6.5-point home favorite against RICE, the favorite won 7, covered 4, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: CONN won 17–10; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 27 points stayed under 45.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 66%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 7.6 against an average line of 6.8; 45 points a game (usually 53.6). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	TROY vs ARMY 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar total & rest	-8.5	10–9	L	U45.5
Very close	RICE vs FAU 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-3.5	24–21	L	U46.75
Very close	CONN vs BUFF 2024 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & situation	-6	47–3	W	O44.5
Very close	NIU vs BALL 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & total	-9.5	17–20	L	U43
Very close	LIB vs VT 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & total	-10.5	22–23	L	U46.25
Very close	WYO vs CSU 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar total & rest	-6	24–15	W	U43.5
Very close	GAST vs TROY 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & rest	-6.5	37–10	W	U49.5
Very close	UL vs ARST 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & situation	-6.25	38–18	W	O51.25
Very close	TROY vs GASO 2021 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & spread	-5.5	27–24	L	O50.75
Very close	USU vs WYO 2021 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & spread	-5.75	17–44	L	O52

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
RICE LLLWW	3-4	43%	1-2	2-2
CONN WWWLL	4-3	57%	3-2	2-1

Venue/role: RICE away, as underdog; CONN home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
RICE UOUOU	3-4	43%	2-5
CONN OOOOU	6-1	86%	4-3

Stayed under: it needed 36 in the 4th quarter and got 17. 53% of games with totals 41.5–49.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
RICE	4-6 40%	4-5-1 44%	4-6 40%
CONN	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

RICE 0–1 CONN CONN leads · 1 game since 2023 · CONN has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 7 2023	UConn 38 @ Rice 31	RICE -10.5	CONN W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

RICE−5.5 →−10.2▼ 4.7#107

CONN−11.5 →−4.7▲ 6.8#89

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW8

RICE

Longer bar = better

CONN

#108

Offense

CONN better ▶

#63

#48

Defense

Even

#39

−1.3 #129

Turnovers

CONN better ▶

−0.4 #94

61 plays #121

Pace

CONN faster ▶

72 plays #16

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When RICE has the ball

Advantage: CONN defense

	RICE off	CONN def	Edge
Points / game	23.3 #102	21.9 #46	CONN
Yards / play	5.75 #78	5.04 #37	CONN
PPA / play	+0.01 #119	+0.02 #31	CONN
Success rate	35% #131	39% #40	CONN

When CONN has the ball

Even matchup

	CONN off	RICE def	Edge
Points / game	33.6 #33	26.1 #81	CONN
Yards / play	5.92 #62	4.90 #25	RICE
PPA / play	+0.12 #76	+0.09 #67	Even
Success rate	43% #80	36% #17	RICE

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

RICE scoring against the CONN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
RICE scored	2.0 #130	8.1 #76	10.1 #108	6.9 #58	6.3 #85	13.1 #71
CONN allowed	4.4 #56	5.6 #36	10.0 #36	4.7 #48	7.1 #90	11.9 #63

CONN scoring against the RICE defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CONN scored	7.7 #33	9.1 #58	16.9 #39	9.4 #20	7.3 #62	16.7 #25
RICE allowed	5.9 #80	7.3 #67	13.1 #78	6.0 #73	7.0 #85	13.0 #83

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.