Navy @ Rice: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 10, 2024)

Sat, Nov 2, 2024, 4:00 PM EDTWeek 10 · at Rice · Conference game

Weather at kickoff76°F13 mphgusts 22Wet0.1 mmWet Over 45% of 309 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Navy

6-1 · Power #61

final

Final

Rice

2-6 · Power #104

▲ winner

Closing spread

NAVY -13.5

✓ RICE W

Total

49.5

▼ Under · 34 pts

Model before kickoff

NAVY 30–18 RICE

✗ NAVY (81%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenNAVY -12.5

CloseNAVY -13.5

Total51.5 → 49.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenNAVY -12.5

1 → NAVY

CloseNAVY -13.5

1 pt toward Navy

Total

Open51.5

▼ 2

Close49.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened NAVY -12.5 · closed NAVY -13.5 · moved 1 toward NAVYmodel NAVY -8

model NAVY -8

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 12.5–14.5 since 2023: won 83%, covered 53% (40 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 52% (81 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenNAVY -12.5

CloseNAVY -13.5

Total51.5 → 49.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like NAVY as a 13.5-point road favorite at RICE, the favorite won 9, covered 4, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: RICE won 24–10 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 34 points stayed under 49.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 80%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 52%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 14.6 against an average line of 13.1; 60.2 points a game (usually 55.1). Of the 4 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	HOU @ USF 2021 · Week 10 · very close · similar situation & spread	-13.5	54–42	L	O53
Very close	CCU @ USA 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & rest	-15	27–21	L	U55
Very close	TOL @ BGSU 2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar total & rest	-10	32–31	L	O49.5
Very close	AFA @ CSU 2023 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & total	-14.5	30–13	W	U47.5
Very close	DUKE @ BC 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar situation & total	-12	38–31	L	O47.25
Very close	ARMY @ TLSA 2024 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & situation	-13.5	49–7	W	O50.5
Very close	ARIZ @ ASU 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar total & rest	-12.5	59–23	W	O49.25
Very close	AFA @ UNM 2021 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & spread	-11.5	38–10	W	O45.5
Close	BOIS @ WYO 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & spread	-14.5	20–17	L	U44.5
Close	MD @ NU 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar spread & situation	-14	27–33	L	O48.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NAVY WWWWL	5-2	71%	2-0	4-1
RICE LLWWL	3-5	38%	2-2	2-3

Venue/role: NAVY away, as favorite; RICE home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
NAVY OOOOO	7-0	100%	6-1
RICE OUOUU	3-5	38%	2-6

Stayed under: it needed 19 in the 4th quarter and got 3. 54% of games with totals 45.5–53.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NAVY	7-3 70%	6-3 67%	8-1 89%
RICE	3-7 30%	3-6-1 33%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

NAVY−17.5 →−0.2▲ 17.3#69

RICE−5.5 →−10.3▼ 4.8#110

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW9

NAVY

Longer bar = better

RICE

Offense

◀ NAVY better

#117

#70

Defense

RICE better ▶

#40

+0.9 #23

Turnovers

◀ NAVY better

−1.0 #126

59 plays #130

Pace

Even

61 plays #120

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When NAVY has the ball

Advantage: NAVY offense

	NAVY off	RICE def	Edge
Points / game	40.4 #8	25.0 #77	NAVY
Yards / play	7.07 #9	4.86 #20	Even
PPA / play	+0.45 #3	+0.07 #55	NAVY
Success rate	54% #3	34% #7	Even

When RICE has the ball

Advantage: NAVY defense

	RICE off	NAVY def	Edge
Points / game	21.6 #111	24.1 #69	NAVY
Yards / play	5.38 #99	5.73 #86	Even
PPA / play	−0.04 #124	+0.03 #33	NAVY
Success rate	34% #134	43% #92	NAVY

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

NAVY scoring against the RICE defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NAVY scored	9.6 #14	14.1 #3	23.7 #4	9.3 #19	7.4 #63	16.7 #28
RICE allowed	5.1 #62	6.4 #45	11.5 #59	6.1 #80	7.4 #92	13.5 #92

RICE scoring against the NAVY defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
RICE scored	2.1 #129	7.1 #95	9.3 #119	6.0 #72	6.4 #81	12.4 #84
NAVY allowed	5.0 #60	6.1 #39	11.1 #54	6.7 #94	6.3 #71	13.0 #83

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.