Memphis @ UTSA: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 10, 2024)

Sat, Nov 2, 2024, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 10 · at UTSA · Conference game

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Memphis

7-1 · Power #56

final

Final

UTSA

3-5 · Power #82

▲ winner

Closing spread

MEM -7.5

✓ UTSA W

Total

61.5

▲ Over · 80 pts

Model before kickoff

MEM 33–25 UTSA

✗ MEM (70%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMEM -9

CloseMEM -7.5

Total60.5 → 61.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenMEM -9

1.5 → UTSA

CloseMEM -7.5

1.5 pts toward UTSA

Total

Open60.5

▲ 1

Close61.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened MEM -9 · closed MEM -7.5 · moved 1.5 toward UTSAmodel MEM -7.5 matches the line

model MEM -7.5 = line ✓

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 6.5–8.5 since 2023: won 70%, covered 54% (79 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 52% (83 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMEM -9

CloseMEM -7.5

Total60.5 → 61.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like MEM as a 7.5-point road favorite at UTSA, the favorite won 8, covered 4, and 8 went over the total.

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This game: UTSA won 44–36 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 80 points went over 61.5, as in 8 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 70%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 5.4 against an average line of 7.2; 63.8 points a game (usually 53.7). Of the 4 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	WKU @ FAU 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & total	-7.5	32–31	L	O62.25
Very close	UTSA @ LT 2021 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & total	-5.5	45–16	W	O59.5
Very close	UNC @ UVA 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & spread	-7.25	31–28	L	U61.5
Very close	UTSA @ UNT 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-8.5	23–45	L	O59.5
Very close	KU @ CIN 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & total	-7.5	49–16	W	O59.25
Very close	OKST @ HOU 2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & spread	-6.5	43–30	W	O57.5
Very close	UL @ ARST 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & spread	-7	17–37	L	U59.5
Very close	FRES @ UNLV 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & rest	-8.5	37–30	L	O62
Very close	WKU @ LT 2023 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & total	-6	35–28	W	O59
Close	ARIZ @ COLO 2023 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & situation	-8	34–31	L	O55.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MEM LLWLL	4-4	50%	2-1	3-4
UTSA WLLWL	2-5	29%	2-0	0-3

Venue/role: MEM away, as favorite; UTSA home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MEM OUUOO	3-5	38%	7-1
UTSA UUOOO	5-2	71%	3-5

Went over in Q4. Of 134 earlier overs in games with totals 57.5–65.5, 30% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MEM	9-1 90%	5-4-1 56%	5-5 50%
UTSA	4-6 40%	3-6 33%	6-3 67%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MEM+2.0 →+2.1▲ 0.1#62

UTSA+1.0 →−7.3▼ 8.3#97

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW9

MEM

Longer bar = better

UTSA

#48

Offense

◀ MEM better

#102

#54

Defense

Even

#63

+1.4 #6

Turnovers

◀ MEM better

−0.1 #83

72 plays #17

Pace

UTSA faster ▶

81 plays #1

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MEM has the ball

Even matchup

	MEM off	UTSA def	Edge
Points / game	34.0 #28	32.1 #116	MEM
Yards / play	5.99 #59	5.52 #69	Even
PPA / play	+0.22 #30	+0.09 #65	MEM
Success rate	43% #76	34% #3	UTSA

When UTSA has the ball

Advantage: MEM defense

	UTSA off	MEM def	Edge
Points / game	27.5 #74	20.9 #35	MEM
Yards / play	5.26 #108	5.62 #76	MEM
PPA / play	+0.06 #107	+0.08 #61	MEM
Success rate	38% #117	39% #45	MEM

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

MEM scoring against the UTSA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MEM scored	7.4 #35	10.8 #26	18.1 #31	8.0 #31	7.9 #47	15.9 #34
UTSA allowed	5.1 #64	9.8 #109	14.9 #93	9.5 #131	7.8 #98	17.3 #125

UTSA scoring against the MEM defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UTSA scored	6.8 #54	10.4 #31	17.1 #40	3.9 #105	6.5 #82	10.4 #107
MEM allowed	4.4 #54	4.6 #15	9.0 #25	3.8 #21	8.1 #103	11.9 #64

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.