Toledo @ Eastern Michigan: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 10, 2024)

Sat, Nov 2, 2024, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 10 · at Eastern Michigan · Conference game

Weather at kickoff50°F1 mphgusts 7DryWeather watch ›

Toledo

5-3 · Power #88

▲ winner

Final

Eastern Michigan

5-3 · Power #120

final

Closing spread

TOL -10.5

✓ EMU W

Total

54.5

▲ Over · 57 pts

Model before kickoff

TOL 30–21 EMU

✓ TOL (75%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTOL -7.5

CloseTOL -10.5

Total52.5 → 54.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenTOL -7.5

3 → TOL

CloseTOL -10.5

3 pts toward Toledo

Total

Open52.5

▲ 2

Close54.5

Up 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened TOL -7.5 · closed TOL -10.5 · moved 3 toward TOLmodel TOL -4.5

model TOL -4.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 9.5–11.5 since 2023: won 82%, covered 60% (44 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 48% (80 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTOL -7.5

CloseTOL -10.5

Total52.5 → 54.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TOL as a 10.5-point road favorite at EMU, the favorite won 7, covered 6, and 8 went over the total.

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This game: TOL won 29–28; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 57 points went over 54.5, as in 8 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 75%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 52%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 7.1 against an average line of 8.9; 61.9 points a game (usually 55.2). Of the 3 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	UL @ CCU 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar season form & rest	-6.5	34–24	W	O57
Close	OHIO @ BUFF 2023 · Week 11 · close · similar spread & season form	-9.5	20–10	W	U45
Close	TULN @ USF 2022 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & spread	-12	45–31	W	O55
Close	FAU @ CLT 2021 · Week 8 · close · similar season form & team ratings	-6.5	38–9	W	U58
Close	ECU @ CLT 2024 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & spread	-9.5	24–55	L	O47.5
Close	ORST @ COLO 2021 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & total	-11.5	34–37	L	O55.5
Close	TOL @ OHIO 2021 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & situation	-7.5	35–23	W	O57.5
Close	MIA @ BC 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & season form	-10	45–20	W	O50.25
Close	FRES @ UNLV 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & season form	-8.5	37–30	L	O62
Close	M-OH @ OHIO 2021 · Week 10 · close · similar total & situation	-7	33–35	L	O54.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TOL LWLWL	4-4	50%	2-2	2-4
EMU WWLWL	6-2	75%	3-1	3-1

Venue/role: TOL away, as favorite; EMU home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
TOL UOOUO	6-2	75%	5-3
EMU UOOOU	4-4	50%	5-3

Went over in Q4. Of 286 earlier overs in games with totals 50.5–58.5, 34% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TOL	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%
EMU	6-4 60%	7-3 70%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

TOL 1–0 EMU TOL leads · 1 game since 2023 · TOL has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 8 2023	Eastern Michigan 23 @ Toledo 49	TOL -20	TOL W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

TOL−0.4 →−4.7▼ 4.3#89

EMU−13.3 →−11.0▲ 2.3#114

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW9

TOL

Longer bar = better

EMU

#88

Offense

Even

#89

#41

Defense

◀ TOL better

#94

−0.1 #84

Turnovers

EMU better ▶

+0.8 #24

69 plays #46

Pace

EMU faster ▶

77 plays #4

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When TOL has the ball

Even matchup

	TOL off	EMU def	Edge
Points / game	29.1 #61	26.0 #81	Even
Yards / play	5.46 #93	6.28 #119	TOL
PPA / play	+0.07 #103	+0.08 #57	EMU
Success rate	41% #96	47% #118	TOL

When EMU has the ball

Advantage: TOL defense

	EMU off	TOL def	Edge
Points / game	29.4 #58	21.6 #44	Even
Yards / play	5.05 #116	5.02 #35	TOL
PPA / play	+0.05 #111	+0.05 #44	TOL
Success rate	43% #72	39% #40	TOL

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

TOL scoring against the EMU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TOL scored	7.0 #46	9.8 #44	16.8 #42	6.8 #59	5.6 #104	12.4 #83
EMU allowed	3.6 #33	9.9 #113	13.5 #83	4.5 #40	7.6 #96	12.1 #70

EMU scoring against the TOL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
EMU scored	6.4 #61	6.8 #101	13.1 #84	7.5 #40	8.0 #44	15.5 #40
TOL allowed	4.3 #45	5.8 #37	10.0 #34	4.9 #51	6.8 #81	11.6 #61

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.