Bowling Green @ Toledo: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 9, 2024)

Sat, Oct 26, 2024, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 9 · at Toledo · Conference game

Weather at kickoff56°F9 mphgusts 20DryWeather watch ›

Bowling Green

3-4 · Power #75

▲ winner

Final

Toledo

5-2 · Power #88

final

Closing spread

TOL -1.5

✓ BGSU W

Total

47.5

▲ Over · 67 pts

Model before kickoff

BGSU 23–24 TOL

✗ TOL (54%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTOL -3

CloseTOL -1.5

Total47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenTOL -3

1.5 → BGSU

CloseTOL -1.5

1.5 pts toward Bowling Green

Total

Open47.5

no move

Close47.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened TOL -3 · closed TOL -1.5 · moved 1.5 toward BGSUmodel TOL -2

model TOL -2

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 0.5–2.5 since 2023: won 50%, covered 46% (98 games)ⓘ

Moved off 3Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 50% (74 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTOL -3

CloseTOL -1.5

Total47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TOL as a 1.5-point home favorite against BGSU, the favorite won 4, covered 4, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: BGSU won 41–26 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 67 points went over 47.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 56%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 1.4 against an average line of 2.4; 46 points a game (usually 53.2). Of the 3 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	BGSU vs NIU 2024 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & situation	-3	7–17	L	U46.5
Very close	BYU vs CIN 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread & situation	-1	35–27	W	O48
Very close	GAST vs TROY 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread & situation	-1	7–28	L	U51
Very close	ORST vs WSU 2022 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & situation	-3	24–10	W	U51.5
Very close	FAU vs MTSU 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & total	-3.5	17–27	L	U49.5
Very close	USM vs GAST 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & rest	-2	14–42	L	O48
Very close	UAB vs FAU 2021 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & total	-3.5	31–14	W	U49
Very close	USA vs TROY 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar situation & season form	-3	6–10	L	U47
Very close	CONN vs FAU 2024 · Week 4 · very close · similar rest & spread	-1	48–14	W	O45.5
Very close	WVU vs OKST 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar situation & season form	-3	34–48	L	O48.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BGSU –LLLL	2-4	33%	1-1	1-0
TOL WLWLW	4-3	57%	2-1	2-3

Venue/role: BGSU away, as underdog; TOL home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
BGSU –OUUU	2-4	33%	3-4
TOL OUOOU	5-2	71%	5-2

Went over in Q2. Of 270 earlier overs in games with totals 43.5–51.5, 34% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BGSU	4-6 40%	4-5 44%	4-5 44%
TOL	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

BGSU 30–33 TOL (1 tied) TOL leads · 64 games since 1962 · BGSU has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 14 2023	Toledo 32 @ Bowling Green 31	TOL -9.5	BGSU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

BGSU−5.6 →−2.6▲ 3.0#80

TOL−0.4 →−3.2▼ 2.8#83

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW8

BGSU

Longer bar = better

TOL

#74

Offense

◀ BGSU better

#88

#51

Defense

TOL better ▶

#27

−0.3 #88

Turnovers

TOL better ▶

+0.1 #72

64 plays #99

Pace

TOL faster ▶

68 plays #56

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When BGSU has the ball

Advantage: TOL defense

	BGSU off	TOL def	Edge
Points / game	25.1 #90	18.9 #25	TOL
Yards / play	5.85 #67	4.87 #22	TOL
PPA / play	+0.14 #69	+0.03 #34	TOL
Success rate	43% #70	38% #28	TOL

When TOL has the ball

Advantage: BGSU defense

	TOL off	BGSU def	Edge
Points / game	29.6 #64	21.4 #43	BGSU
Yards / play	5.41 #96	5.44 #65	BGSU
PPA / play	+0.08 #92	+0.10 #76	Even
Success rate	40% #99	37% #21	BGSU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

BGSU scoring against the TOL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BGSU scored	8.7 #21	7.3 #90	16.0 #49	4.0 #106	5.1 #109	9.1 #118
TOL allowed	2.9 #15	4.6 #19	7.4 #11	5.1 #57	6.3 #73	11.4 #57

TOL scoring against the BGSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TOL scored	7.0 #49	9.3 #51	16.3 #45	6.9 #58	6.4 #82	13.3 #70
BGSU allowed	6.3 #92	4.4 #18	10.7 #47	3.0 #14	7.7 #97	10.7 #43

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.