Central Michigan @ Miami (OH): Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 9, 2024)

Sat, Oct 26, 2024, 2:00 PM EDTWeek 9 · at Miami (OH) · Conference game

Weather at kickoff60°F9 mphgusts 21DryWeather watch ›

Central Michigan

3-4 · Power #123

final

Final

Miami (OH)

3-4 · Power #73

▲ winner

Closing spread

M-OH -9.5

✓ M-OH W

Total

48.5

▲ Over · 53 pts

Model before kickoff

CMU 19–29 M-OH

✓ M-OH (77%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenM-OH -11.5

CloseM-OH -9.5

Total46.5 → 48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenM-OH -11.5

2 → CMU

CloseM-OH -9.5

2 pts toward Central Michigan

Total

Open46.5

▲ 2

Close48.5

Up 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened M-OH -11.5 · closed M-OH -9.5 · moved 2 toward CMUmodel M-OH -13

model M-OH -13

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 8.5–10.5 since 2023: won 78%, covered 43% (76 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 47% (66 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenM-OH -11.5

CloseM-OH -9.5

Total46.5 → 48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like M-OH as a 9.5-point home favorite against CMU, the favorite won 8, covered 6, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: M-OH won 46–7; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 53 points went over 48.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 73%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 52%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 12.6 against an average line of 9; 46.4 points a game (usually 54.6). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	FAU vs FIU 2021 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & situation	-10.5	58–21	W	O52
Very close	TROY vs ARMY 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & season form	-8.5	10–9	L	U45.5
Very close	WYO vs CSU 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar season form & rest	-6	24–15	W	U43.5
Very close	NIU vs BALL 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & spread	-9.5	17–20	L	U43
Very close	ARMY vs CONN 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & total	-10.5	34–17	W	O45
Very close	WYO vs HAW 2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-13.5	42–9	W	O45
Very close	WKU vs SHSU 2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & spread	-11	28–23	L	U52.25
Close	CMU vs BGSU 2022 · Week 8 · close · similar situation & rest	-6	18–34	L	O50.5
Close	UL vs ARST 2022 · Week 8 · close · similar situation & team ratings	-6.25	38–18	W	O51.25
Close	CAL vs COLO 2021 · Week 8 · close · similar situation & rest	-8.25	26–3	W	U44

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CMU WLLWL	3-4	43%	1-2	2-1
M-OH WLLWW	3-4	43%	1-2	2-1

Venue/role: CMU away, as underdog; M-OH home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
CMU UOUOO	5-2	71%	3-4
M-OH UUOOO	3-4	43%	3-4

Went over in Q4. Of 279 earlier overs in games with totals 44.5–52.5, 34% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CMU	3-7 30%	3-7 30%	7-3 70%
M-OH	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

CMU 13–17 M-OH (1 tied) M-OH leads · 31 games since 1978 · M-OH has won the last 5 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

CMU−12.0 →−13.4▼ 1.4#118

M-OH−4.7 →−3.9▲ 0.8#86

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW8

CMU

Longer bar = better

M-OH

#67

Offense

◀ CMU better

#100

#94

Defense

M-OH better ▶

#58

−1.0 #121

Turnovers

M-OH better ▶

+0.3 #52

65 plays #81

Pace

◀ CMU faster

59 plays #131

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When CMU has the ball

Even matchup

	CMU off	M-OH def	Edge
Points / game	29.9 #60	21.7 #45	Even
Yards / play	6.16 #49	5.13 #46	Even
PPA / play	+0.14 #65	+0.05 #46	Even
Success rate	41% #92	43% #93	Even

When M-OH has the ball

Even matchup

	M-OH off	CMU def	Edge
Points / game	19.4 #121	30.3 #105	Even
Yards / play	5.67 #83	5.74 #88	Even
PPA / play	+0.07 #98	+0.20 #116	Even
Success rate	41% #97	41% #68	CMU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

CMU scoring against the M-OH defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CMU scored	3.9 #109	11.3 #24	15.1 #57	8.4 #25	6.3 #85	14.7 #47
M-OH allowed	4.9 #63	4.3 #15	9.1 #29	5.3 #59	7.3 #92	12.6 #79

M-OH scoring against the CMU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
M-OH scored	3.3 #118	5.6 #116	8.9 #121	5.0 #89	5.1 #108	10.1 #108
CMU allowed	7.3 #111	10.7 #119	18.0 #118	4.0 #30	8.3 #107	12.3 #72

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.