Ohio @ Miami (OH): Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 8, 2024)

Sat, Oct 19, 2024, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 8 · at Miami (OH) · Conference game

Weather at kickoff66°F3 mphgusts 10DryWeather watch ›

Ohio

4-2 · Power #65

final

Final

Miami (OH)

2-4 · Power #73

▲ winner

Closing spread

M-OH -3.5

✓ M-OH W

Total

42.5

▲ Over · 50 pts

Model before kickoff

OHIO 20–24 M-OH

✓ M-OH (60%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenM-OH -3.5

CloseM-OH -3.5

Total43.5 → 42.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenM-OH -3.5

no move

CloseM-OH -3.5

No change since the open

Total

Open43.5

▼ 1

Close42.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened M-OH -3.5 · unchangedmodel M-OH -4.5

model M-OH -4.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 2.5–4.5 since 2023: won 59%, covered 49% (156 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenM-OH -3.5

CloseM-OH -3.5

Total43.5 → 42.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like M-OH as a 3.5-point home favorite against OHIO, the favorite won 5, covered 4, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: M-OH won 30–20; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 50 points went over 42.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 59%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 0 against an average line of 3.5; 51.6 points a game (usually 53.2). Of the 2 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	VT vs GT 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & team ratings	-4	27–28	L	O40.5
Very close	SJSU vs WYO 2021 · Week 9 · very close · similar spread & situation	-3	27–21	W	O40.5
Very close	M-OH vs BALL 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar season form & rest	-2.5	18–17	L	U45
Very close	WYO vs CSU 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar season form & rest	-6	24–15	W	U43.5
Very close	PITT vs BC 2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & season form	-1.75	24–16	W	U46.75
Very close	ILL vs NU 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & season form	-5.5	43–45	L	O46.75
Very close	VT vs SYR 2021 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & rest	-3.5	36–41	L	O45.5
Very close	SYR vs WAKE 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & total	-2	35–31	W	O43.5
Very close	FAU vs MTSU 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	17–27	L	U49.5
Very close	BGSU vs NIU 2024 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3	7–17	L	U46.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
OHIO WLLWL	3-3	50%	1-2	2-1
M-OH LWLLW	2-4	33%	0-2	1-1

Venue/role: OHIO away, as underdog; M-OH home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
OHIO UUOUO	3-3	50%	4-2
M-OH UUUOO	2-4	33%	2-4

Went over in Q4. Of 145 earlier overs in games with totals 38.5–46.5, 32% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
OHIO	8-2 80%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%
M-OH	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	2-8 20%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

OHIO 0–1 M-OH M-OH leads · 1 game since 2023 · M-OH has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 28 2023	Miami (OH) 30 @ Ohio 16	OHIO -7.5	M-OH W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

OHIO−3.6 →−6.3▼ 2.7#94

M-OH−4.7 →−4.5▲ 0.2#85

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW7

OHIO

Longer bar = better

M-OH

#81

Offense

◀ OHIO better

#108

#60

Defense

Even

#71

−1.2 #126

Turnovers

M-OH better ▶

0.0 #75

62 plays #108

Pace

◀ OHIO faster

60 plays #128

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When OHIO has the ball

Even matchup

	OHIO off	M-OH def	Edge
Points / game	22.2 #111	22.0 #52	M-OH
Yards / play	6.08 #59	5.37 #64	Even
PPA / play	+0.10 #87	+0.08 #62	M-OH
Success rate	44% #68	44% #106	OHIO

When M-OH has the ball

Advantage: OHIO defense

	M-OH off	OHIO def	Edge
Points / game	17.7 #127	23.3 #65	OHIO
Yards / play	5.56 #92	5.18 #51	OHIO
PPA / play	+0.05 #107	+0.10 #76	OHIO
Success rate	40% #104	39% #47	OHIO

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

OHIO scoring against the M-OH defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
OHIO scored	4.3 #99	8.7 #62	13.0 #89	3.8 #113	5.3 #108	9.2 #120
M-OH allowed	5.7 #79	5.0 #29	10.7 #53	5.2 #63	6.2 #68	11.3 #56

M-OH scoring against the OHIO defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
M-OH scored	3.3 #116	4.3 #126	7.7 #129	3.5 #117	6.0 #86	9.5 #114
OHIO allowed	1.5 #8	8.5 #85	10.0 #41	6.5 #91	6.8 #79	13.3 #91

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.