Kent State @ Bowling Green: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 8, 2024)

Sat, Oct 19, 2024, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 8 · at Bowling Green · Conference game

Weather at kickoff69°F5 mphgusts 12DryWeather watch ›

Kent State

0-6 · Power #134

final

Final

Bowling Green

2-4 · Power #75

▲ winner

Closing spread

BGSU -23.5

✓ KENT W

Total

54.5

▼ Under · 33 pts

Model before kickoff

KENT 16–41 BGSU

✓ BGSU (96%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenBGSU -21

CloseBGSU -23.5

Total57.5 → 54.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenBGSU -21

2.5 → BGSU

CloseBGSU -23.5

2.5 pts toward Bowling Green

Total

Open57.5

▼ 3

Close54.5

Down 3 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened BGSU -21 · closed BGSU -23.5 · moved 2.5 toward BGSUmodel BGSU -29

model BGSU -29

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 21.5–25.5 since 2023: won 94%, covered 44% (71 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 47% (68 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenBGSU -21

CloseBGSU -23.5

Total57.5 → 54.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like BGSU as a 23.5-point home favorite against KENT, the favorite won 10, covered 3, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: BGSU won 27–6; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 33 points stayed under 54.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Normal range · usually 91%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 16.6 against an average line of 24; 46.4 points a game (usually 54.7). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	SDSU vs HAW 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar situation & spread	-23.75	16–14	L	U49
Close	LIB vs AKR 2022 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & season form	-26.5	21–12	L	U53
Close	TLSA vs TEM 2021 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & situation	-22	44–10	W	O50.5
Close	M-OH vs AKR 2021 · Week 7 · close · similar rest	-20	34–21	L	O51
Close	FRES vs NEV 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar situation & rest	-24.5	27–9	L	U51.5
Close	UTSA vs UNLV 2021 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & spread	-21.5	24–17	L	U55.5
Close	ORST vs COLO 2022 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & situation	-23	42–9	W	O47.5
Close	MEM vs MTSU 2024 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & situation	-27	24–7	L	U61.5
Loose	APP vs ULM 2021 · Week 9 · loose · similar situation & total	-27	59–28	W	O57.5
Loose	TULN vs TLSA 2023 · Week 11 · loose · similar rest & spread	-24.5	24–22	L	U52.75

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
KENT LL–LW	1-4	20%	0-2	1-3
BGSU W–LLL	2-3	40%	1-2	1-3

Venue/role: KENT away, as underdog; BGSU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
KENT UO–OO	4-1	80%	0-6
BGSU O–OUU	2-3	40%	2-4

Stayed under: it needed 29 in the 4th quarter and got 7. 52% of games with totals 50.5–58.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
KENT	0-10 0%	2-7 22%	7-2 78%
BGSU	4-6 40%	5-4 56%	5-4 56%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

KENT 0–1 BGSU BGSU leads · 1 game since 2023 · BGSU has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 8 2023	Bowling Green 49 @ Kent State 19	BGSU -11.5	BGSU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

KENT−20.0 →−26.6▼ 6.6#134

BGSU−5.6 →−2.7▲ 2.9#81

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW7

KENT

Longer bar = better

BGSU

#128

Offense

BGSU better ▶

#81

#134

Defense

BGSU better ▶

#74

−0.7 #109

Turnovers

Even

−0.8 #114

58 plays #132

Pace

BGSU faster ▶

62 plays #110

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When KENT has the ball

Advantage: BGSU defense

	KENT off	BGSU def	Edge
Points / game	18.2 #125	24.0 #70	BGSU
Yards / play	4.44 #133	5.67 #83	BGSU
PPA / play	−0.04 #123	+0.17 #105	Even
Success rate	34% #132	38% #36	BGSU

When BGSU has the ball

Advantage: BGSU offense

	BGSU off	KENT def	Edge
Points / game	24.8 #97	49.0 #137	BGSU
Yards / play	5.84 #70	7.11 #134	BGSU
PPA / play	+0.13 #77	+0.31 #131	BGSU
Success rate	43% #79	52% #134	BGSU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

KENT scoring against the BGSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
KENT scored	2.3 #127	5.8 #112	8.2 #123	4.0 #107	6.0 #86	10.0 #110
BGSU allowed	6.8 #102	4.7 #22	11.5 #62	3.5 #25	9.0 #116	12.5 #74

BGSU scoring against the KENT defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BGSU scored	8.5 #24	6.8 #97	15.3 #55	4.7 #94	4.8 #120	9.5 #114
KENT allowed	14.2 #134	16.2 #133	30.3 #134	9.7 #130	9.0 #116	18.7 #131

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.