Central Michigan @ Eastern Michigan: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 8, 2024)

Sat, Oct 19, 2024, 2:00 PM EDTWeek 8 · at Eastern Michigan · Conference game

Weather at kickoff66°F5 mphgusts 12DryWeather watch ›

Central Michigan

3-3 · Power #123

final

Final

Eastern Michigan

4-2 · Power #120

▲ winner

Closing spread

EMU -3.5

✓ EMU W

Total

52.5

▲ Over · 72 pts

Model before kickoff

CMU 25–28 EMU

✓ EMU (61%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenEMU -2

CloseEMU -3.5

Total54.5 → 52.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenEMU -2

1.5 → EMU

CloseEMU -3.5

1.5 pts toward Eastern Michigan

Total

Open54.5

▼ 2

Close52.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened EMU -2 · closed EMU -3.5 · moved 1.5 toward EMUmodel EMU -5.5

model EMU -5.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 2.5–4.5 since 2023: won 58%, covered 48% (154 games)ⓘ

Crossed 3The team the line moved toward covered 52% (25 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenEMU -2

CloseEMU -3.5

Total54.5 → 52.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like EMU as a 3.5-point home favorite against CMU, the favorite won 5, covered 3, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: EMU won 38–34; the favorite covered, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 72 points went over 52.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 59%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 0.1 against an average line of 4; 51.7 points a game (usually 53.2). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	CMU vs NIU 2021 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & situation	-6	38–39	L	O56
Very close	USM vs ARST 2022 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & situation	-4.5	20–19	L	U53
Very close	LT vs TLSA 2024 · Week 4 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-2.5	20–23	L	U56.5
Very close	TXST vs ARST 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-6	16–13	L	U50
Very close	NIU vs WMU 2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & spread	-4	24–0	W	U55.5
Very close	WMU vs EMU 2022 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & spread	-4.5	23–45	L	O55.5
Very close	CLT vs MTSU 2021 · Week 4 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-2.5	42–39	W	O55.5
Very close	BUFF vs KENT 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar total & season form	-4.5	27–30	L	O51
Very close	CMU vs BUFF 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & total	-2.75	31–27	W	O54
Very close	MTSU vs ODU 2021 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-3	17–24	L	U48.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CMU LWLLW	3-3	50%	1-1	2-0
EMU WWWWL	5-1	83%	2-1	2-0

Venue/role: CMU away, as underdog; EMU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
CMU OUOUO	4-2	67%	3-3
EMU UOUOO	3-3	50%	4-2

Went over in Q4. Of 281 earlier overs in games with totals 48.5–56.5, 35% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CMU	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	7-3 70%
EMU	6-4 60%	6-3-1 67%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

CMU 1–0 EMU CMU leads · 1 game since 2023 · CMU has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 30 2023	Eastern Michigan 23 @ Central Michigan 26	CMU -10	EMU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

CMU−12.0 →−13.3▼ 1.3#119

EMU−13.3 →−10.5▲ 2.8#110

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW7

CMU

Longer bar = better

EMU

#67

Offense

◀ CMU better

#89

#98

Defense

Even

#96

−1.2 #127

Turnovers

EMU better ▶

+1.0 #18

67 plays #66

Pace

EMU faster ▶

75 plays #6

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When CMU has the ball

Advantage: CMU offense

	CMU off	EMU def	Edge
Points / game	29.2 #66	24.8 #78	Even
Yards / play	6.08 #57	6.20 #112	CMU
PPA / play	+0.18 #53	+0.09 #70	Even
Success rate	41% #92	48% #125	CMU

When EMU has the ball

Even matchup

	EMU off	CMU def	Edge
Points / game	29.3 #64	29.0 #98	EMU
Yards / play	4.81 #126	5.77 #86	CMU
PPA / play	+0.04 #109	+0.24 #123	Even
Success rate	45% #58	42% #83	EMU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

CMU scoring against the EMU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CMU scored	4.5 #95	10.8 #30	15.3 #55	7.7 #38	6.2 #82	13.8 #64
EMU allowed	3.5 #38	9.2 #96	12.7 #73	3.8 #28	7.8 #101	11.7 #61

EMU scoring against the CMU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
EMU scored	6.8 #52	8.0 #77	14.8 #62	7.7 #38	5.8 #91	13.5 #68
CMU allowed	6.8 #102	11.5 #124	18.3 #118	4.7 #49	6.0 #64	10.7 #51

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.