Ohio @ Central Michigan: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 7, 2024)

Sat, Oct 12, 2024, 4:00 PM EDTWeek 7 · at Central Michigan · Conference game

Weather at kickoff62°F7 mphgusts 17DryWeather watch ›

Ohio

3-2 · Power #65

▲ winner

Final

Central Michigan

3-2 · Power #123

final

Closing spread

OHIO -2.5

✓ CMU W

Total

49.5

▲ Over · 52 pts

Model before kickoff

OHIO 27–24 CMU

✓ OHIO (59%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenOHIO -2.5

CloseOHIO -2.5

Total47.5 → 49.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenOHIO -2.5

no move

CloseOHIO -2.5

No change since the open

Total

Open47.5

▲ 2

Close49.5

Up 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened OHIO -2.5 · unchangedmodel OHIO -5

model OHIO -5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 53%, covered 43% (93 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenOHIO -2.5

CloseOHIO -2.5

Total47.5 → 49.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like OHIO as a 2.5-point road favorite at CMU, the favorite won 4, covered 4, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: OHIO won 27–25; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 52 points went over 49.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 2.5 against an average line of 4.8; 58.1 points a game (usually 53.1). Of the 2 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	NIU @ CMU 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar total & situation	-4.75	31–37	L	O48
Very close	FAU @ UTEP 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & situation	-3	21–24	L	U50.75
Close	APP @ ODU 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar situation	-6	21–28	L	U56
Close	MTSU @ SHSU 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar spread & total	-3.5	20–23	L	U50
Close	SDSU @ HAW 2023 · Week 7 · close · similar situation & rest	-6	41–34	W	O52
Close	USU @ SDSU 2023 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & spread	-2.25	32–24	W	U56.5
Close	M-OH @ OHIO 2021 · Week 10 · close · similar team ratings & situation	-7	33–35	L	O54.5
Close	CSU @ HAW 2021 · Week 12 · close · similar team ratings & season form	-3	45–50	L	O53.75
Close	GAST @ GASO 2021 · Week 9 · close · similar situation & team ratings	-6	21–14	W	U55
Close	FAU @ CLT 2021 · Week 8 · close · similar situation & team ratings	-6.5	38–9	W	U58

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
OHIO WWLLW	3-2	60%	1-1	1-1
CMU WLWLL	2-3	40%	1-2	1-0

Venue/role: OHIO away, as favorite; CMU home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
OHIO OUUOU	2-3	40%	3-2
CMU OOUOU	3-2	60%	3-2

Went over in Q4. Of 268 earlier overs in games with totals 45.5–53.5, 35% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
OHIO	7-3 70%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%
CMU	4-6 40%	3-7 30%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

OHIO 1–0 CMU OHIO leads · 1 game since 2023 · OHIO has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 15 2023	Central Michigan 20 @ Ohio 34	OHIO -10.5	OHIO W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

OHIO−3.6 →−6.3▼ 2.7#94

CMU−12.0 →−13.2▼ 1.2#117

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW6

OHIO

Longer bar = better

CMU

#88

Offense

CMU better ▶

#65

#57

Defense

◀ OHIO better

#93

−1.0 #120

Turnovers

◀ OHIO better

−1.8 #134

63 plays #105

Pace

CMU faster ▶

68 plays #54

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When OHIO has the ball

Even matchup

	OHIO off	CMU def	Edge
Points / game	21.2 #113	29.4 #97	Even
Yards / play	5.88 #69	5.51 #73	Even
PPA / play	+0.06 #102	+0.23 #116	Even
Success rate	44% #67	42% #85	Even

When CMU has the ball

Even matchup

	CMU off	OHIO def	Edge
Points / game	30.0 #65	23.0 #62	Even
Yards / play	6.32 #41	5.26 #57	Even
PPA / play	+0.17 #66	+0.07 #60	Even
Success rate	42% #89	39% #49	OHIO

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

OHIO scoring against the CMU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
OHIO scored	4.6 #98	6.2 #100	10.8 #106	4.6 #102	5.8 #93	10.4 #110
CMU allowed	7.6 #112	9.6 #97	17.2 #108	5.6 #71	6.6 #76	12.2 #77

CMU scoring against the OHIO defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CMU scored	5.4 #85	13.0 #13	18.4 #36	7.6 #46	4.0 #121	11.6 #96
OHIO allowed	1.8 #8	10.2 #109	12.0 #66	6.2 #80	4.8 #44	11.0 #51

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.