Mississippi State @ Georgia: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 7, 2024)

Sat, Oct 12, 2024, 4:15 PM EDTWeek 7 · at Georgia · Conference game

Weather at kickoff77°F3 mphgusts 10DryWeather watch ›

Mississippi State

1-4 · Power #72

final

Final

Georgia

4-1 · Power #8

▲ winner

Closing spread

UGA -34.5

✓ MSST W

Total

54.5

▲ Over · 72 pts

Model before kickoff

MSST 11–45 UGA

✓ UGA (99%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUGA -34

CloseUGA -34.5

Total53.5 → 54.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenUGA -34

0.5 → UGA

CloseUGA -34.5

0.5 pts toward Georgia

Total

Open53.5

▲ 1

Close54.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened UGA -34 · closed UGA -34.5 · moved 0.5 toward UGAmodel UGA -32.5

model UGA -32.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 32.5–36.5 since 2023: won 100%, covered 53% (53 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUGA -34

CloseUGA -34.5

Total53.5 → 54.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like UGA as a 34.5-point home favorite against MSST, the favorite won 10, covered 5, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: UGA won 41–31; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 72 points went over 54.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Normal range · usually 98%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 56%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 38 against an average line of 33.7; 57.4 points a game (usually 55.9). Of the 3 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	TENN vs CONN 2023 · Week 10 · close · similar spread & season form	-35.5	59–3	W	O55.5
Close	CLEM vs LT 2022 · Week 3 · close · similar spread	-33.5	48–20	L	O53.5
Close	UGA vs GT 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar spread & season form	-36.5	37–14	L	O49
Close	UGA vs VAN 2022 · Week 7 · close · similar situation & total	-37.5	55–0	W	U56.5
Close	MSU vs AKR 2022 · Week 2 · close · similar spread & total	-34.5	52–0	W	U56
Loose	LSU vs ARMY 2023 · Week 8 · loose · similar situation & season form	-33	62–0	W	O60
Loose	ISU vs KU 2021 · Week 5 · loose · similar spread & situation	-34.5	59–7	W	O57
Loose	PSU vs IU 2023 · Week 9 · loose · similar situation	-31	33–24	L	O45
Loose	TEX vs WYO 2023 · Week 3 · loose	-31	31–10	L	U48.5
Loose	ORE vs ARIZ 2021 · Week 4 · loose · similar situation & total	-29.5	41–19	L	O58.75

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MSST WLL–W	2-2	50%	1-1	1-1
UGA WLLLL	1-4	20%	0-2	1-4

Venue/role: MSST away, as underdog; UGA home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MSST OUO–U	2-2	50%	1-4
UGA UUUOU	1-4	20%	4-1

Went over in Q3. Of 251 earlier overs in games with totals 50.5–58.5, 35% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MSST	2-8 20%	3-5-1 38%	4-4-1 50%
UGA	8-2 80%	4-6 40%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MSST+1.2 →−3.1▼ 4.3#80

UGA+24.2 →+23.3▼ 0.9#3

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW6

MSST

Longer bar = better

UGA

#80

Offense

UGA better ▶

#38

#122

Defense

UGA better ▶

#41

0.0 #74

Turnovers

Even

0.0 #75

68 plays #49

Pace

◀ MSST faster

63 plays #97

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MSST has the ball

Advantage: UGA defense

	MSST off	UGA def	Edge
Points / game	27.4 #83	14.4 #13	UGA
Yards / play	5.56 #92	5.08 #47	UGA
PPA / play	+0.17 #65	+0.06 #53	Even
Success rate	42% #80	39% #50	UGA

When UGA has the ball

Advantage: UGA offense

	UGA off	MSST def	Edge
Points / game	32.0 #48	31.6 #111	UGA
Yards / play	6.65 #30	6.22 #113	UGA
PPA / play	+0.25 #28	+0.28 #127	UGA
Success rate	46% #45	52% #135	UGA

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

MSST scoring against the UGA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MSST scored	4.2 #103	8.0 #76	12.2 #94	5.6 #80	9.6 #21	15.2 #43
UGA allowed	5.4 #77	2.4 #9	7.8 #19	3.2 #19	3.4 #19	6.6 #13

UGA scoring against the MSST defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UGA scored	4.2 #103	6.6 #98	10.8 #107	10.6 #8	10.6 #11	21.2 #6
MSST allowed	6.2 #90	14.6 #131	20.8 #126	4.8 #54	6.0 #64	10.8 #49

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.