Ole Miss @ LSU: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 7, 2024)

Sat, Oct 12, 2024, 7:30 PM EDTWeek 7 · at LSU · Conference game

Weather at kickoff83°F1 mphDryWeather watch ›

Ole Miss

5-1 · Power #3

final

Final

LSU

4-1 · Power #12

▲ winner

Closing spread

MISS -3.5

✓ LSU W

Total

64.5

▼ Under · 55 pts

Model before kickoff

MISS 34–30 LSU

✗ MISS (61%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMISS -3.5

CloseMISS -3.5

Total64.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenMISS -3.5

no move

CloseMISS -3.5

No change since the open

Total

Open64.5

no move

Close64.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened MISS -3.5 · unchangedmodel MISS -5.5

model MISS -5.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 2.5–4.5 since 2023: won 54%, covered 41% (84 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMISS -3.5

CloseMISS -3.5

Total64.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like MISS as a 3.5-point road favorite at LSU, the favorite won 4, covered 3, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: LSU won 29–26 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 55 points stayed under 64.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 58%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 2.4 against an average line of 5.2; 65 points a game (usually 53.2). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	UTAH @ UCLA 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar spread & total	-3	32–42	L	O64.5
Close	OU @ KU 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & total	-7	33–38	L	O66.5
Close	TEX @ TCU 2021 · Week 5 · close · similar spread & situation	-4	32–27	W	U65.5
Close	OSU @ MICH 2021 · Week 13 · close · similar total & situation	-6.5	27–42	L	O64.5
Close	WASH @ UCLA 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar total & situation	-2.5	32–40	L	O65
Close	CCU @ APP 2021 · Week 8 · close · similar situation & spread	-4.5	27–30	L	U60.75
Loose	TENN @ PITT 2022 · Week 2 · loose · similar spread	-6	34–27	W	U62.75
Loose	UGA @ TENN 2023 · Week 12 · loose · similar situation	-9	38–10	W	U59
Loose	TENN @ MIZ 2023 · Week 11 · loose · similar spread & situation	-2	7–36	L	U58.75
Loose	CLEM @ WAKE 2022 · Week 4 · loose · similar situation	-7.5	51–45	L	O58

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MISS WWWLW	5-1	83%	2-0	5-1
LSU LLL–W	1-3	25%	1-1	—

Venue/role: MISS away, as favorite; LSU home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MISS UUUUU	1-5	17%	5-1
LSU UOO–U	2-2	50%	4-1

Stayed under: it needed 29 in the 4th quarter and got 19. 42% of games with totals 60.5–68.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MISS	8-2 80%	6-3-1 67%	3-7 30%
LSU	8-2 80%	3-6 33%	6-3 67%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

MISS 1–0 LSU MISS leads · 1 game since 2023 · MISS has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 30 2023	LSU 49 @ Ole Miss 55	LSU -3	MISS W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MISS+12.8 →+22.1▲ 9.3#5

LSU+17.5 →+14.6▼ 2.9#12

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW6

MISS

Longer bar = better

LSU

Offense

◀ MISS better

#21

Defense

◀ MISS better

#86

+0.7 #32

Turnovers

◀ MISS better

+0.2 #64

71 plays #27

Pace

◀ MISS faster

67 plays #64

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MISS has the ball

Advantage: MISS offense

	MISS off	LSU def	Edge
Points / game	44.0 #10	21.6 #51	MISS
Yards / play	8.11 #2	5.85 #99	MISS
PPA / play	+0.47 #5	+0.20 #106	MISS
Success rate	56% #4	42% #88	MISS

When LSU has the ball

Even matchup

	LSU off	MISS def	Edge
Points / game	35.2 #30	7.5 #3	MISS
Yards / play	6.97 #21	3.79 #3	Even
PPA / play	+0.29 #22	−0.09 #7	Even
Success rate	51% #11	32% #3	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

MISS scoring against the LSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MISS scored	16.5 #1	10.3 #42	26.8 #3	11.5 #5	5.7 #94	17.2 #26
LSU allowed	4.8 #63	8.8 #92	13.6 #85	3.4 #25	4.6 #37	8.0 #21

LSU scoring against the MISS defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LSU scored	7.4 #50	12.8 #11	20.2 #20	8.2 #30	6.8 #74	15.0 #47
MISS allowed	1.0 #3	3.8 #16	4.8 #7	1.0 #4	1.7 #3	2.7 #2

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.