South Alabama @ LSU: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 5, 2024)

Sat, Sep 28, 2024, 7:45 PM EDTWeek 5 · at LSU

Weather at kickoff80°F6 mphDryWeather watch ›

South Alabama

2-2 · Power #66

final

Final

LSU

3-1 · Power #12

▲ winner

Closing spread

LSU -20.5

✓ LSU W

Total

64.5

▼ Under · 52 pts

Model before kickoff

USA 23–43 LSU

✓ LSU (92%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenLSU -20.5

CloseLSU -20.5

Total65.5 → 64.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenLSU -20.5

no move

CloseLSU -20.5

No change since the open

Total

Open65.5

▼ 1

Close64.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened LSU -20.5 · unchangedmodel LSU -17.5

model LSU -17.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 19.5–21.5 since 2023: won 94%, covered 48% (52 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenLSU -20.5

CloseLSU -20.5

Total65.5 → 64.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like LSU as a 20.5-point home favorite against USA, the favorite won 9, covered 5, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: LSU won 42–10; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 52 points stayed under 64.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 90%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 14 against an average line of 18.2; 59.8 points a game (usually 55.4). Of the 2 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	LSU vs CMU 2021 · Week 3 · very close · similar season form & spread	-19.5	49–21	W	O60.5
Close	OU vs TTU 2021 · Week 9 · close · similar spread & total	-19	52–21	W	O67
Close	ORE vs BOIS 2024 · Week 2 · close · similar rest & situation	-18	37–34	L	O60.5
Loose	ARK vs LIB 2022 · Week 10 · loose · similar situation	-14.5	19–21	L	U61.5
Loose	USC vs ARIZ 2023 · Week 6 · loose · similar spread & rest	-21	43–41	L	O69.5
Loose	TEX vs KU 2023 · Week 5 · loose · similar rest & total	-16.5	40–14	W	U61
Loose	ALA vs MSST 2022 · Week 8 · loose · similar spread & total	-21.25	30–6	W	U61.5
Loose	FLA vs TENN 2021 · Week 4 · loose · similar rest & spread	-19	38–14	W	U64.75
Loose	WAKE vs LIB 2022 · Week 3 · loose · similar rest & situation	-17.5	37–36	L	O64
Loose	WASH vs WSU 2023 · Week 13 · loose · similar rest & total	-15.5	24–21	L	U65.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
USA LLW–	1-2	33%	0-1	—
LSU LLL–	0-3	0%	0-1	0-3

Venue/role: USA away, as underdog; LSU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
USA OUO–	2-1	67%	2-2
LSU UOO–	2-1	67%	3-1

Stayed under: it needed 20 in the 4th quarter and got 7. 43% of games with totals 60.5–68.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
USA	5-5 50%	3-6 33%	4-5 44%
LSU	8-2 80%	3-6 33%	7-2 78%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

USA+0.8 →+0.8–#66

LSU+17.5 →+14.2▼ 3.3#13

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW4

USA

Longer bar = better

LSU

Offense

◀ USA better

#40

#86

Defense

Even

#96

+1.3 #22

Turnovers

◀ USA better

+0.8 #43

67 plays #67

Pace

Even

67 plays #62

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When USA has the ball

Advantage: USA offense

	USA off	LSU def	Edge
Points / game	48.3 #9	24.5 #77	USA
Yards / play	7.59 #11	6.00 #103	USA
PPA / play	+0.49 #8	+0.20 #110	USA
Success rate	55% #6	42% #93	USA

When LSU has the ball

Advantage: LSU offense

	LSU off	USA def	Edge
Points / game	33.5 #45	25.8 #83	LSU
Yards / play	6.27 #52	5.88 #98	LSU
PPA / play	+0.24 #41	+0.10 #76	LSU
Success rate	50% #20	42% #86	LSU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

USA scoring against the LSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
USA scored	10.3 #19	17.0 #5	27.3 #6	13.8 #4	7.3 #55	21.0 #13
LSU allowed	6.0 #87	10.3 #112	16.3 #107	2.5 #16	5.8 #67	8.3 #32

LSU scoring against the USA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LSU scored	4.0 #103	12.5 #23	16.5 #59	10.3 #15	6.8 #69	17.0 #33
USA allowed	5.0 #72	7.0 #69	12.0 #72	8.8 #115	5.0 #55	13.8 #94

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.