Boise State @ Oregon: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 2, 2024)

Sat, Sep 7, 2024, 10:00 PM EDTWeek 2 · at Oregon

Weather at kickoff83°F5 mphDryWeather watch ›

Boise State

1-0 · Power #29

final

Final

Oregon

1-0 · Power #5

▲ winner

Closing spread

ORE -17.5

✓ BOIS W

Total

60.5

▲ Over · 71 pts

Model before kickoff

BOIS 22–40 ORE

✓ ORE (90%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenORE -19.5

CloseORE -17.5

Total60.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenORE -19.5

2 → BOIS

CloseORE -17.5

2 pts toward Boise State

Total

Open60.5

no move

Close60.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened ORE -19.5 · closed ORE -17.5 · moved 2 toward BOISmodel ORE -20.5

model ORE -20.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 16.5–18.5 since 2023: won 94%, covered 51% (47 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenORE -19.5

CloseORE -17.5

Total60.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ORE as a 17.5-point home favorite against BOIS, the favorite won 10, covered 7, and 2 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: ORE won 37–34; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 71 points went over 60.5, as in 2 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Normal range · usually 87%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

2 of 1020%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 18.8 against an average line of 17.1; 55 points a game (usually 54.5). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	TEX vs KU 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & spread	-16.5	40–14	W	U61
Close	OU vs TTU 2021 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & season form	-19	52–21	W	O67
Close	LSU vs CMU 2021 · Week 3 · close · similar situation & rest	-19.5	49–21	W	O60.5
Close	FLA vs TENN 2021 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & spread	-19	38–14	W	U64.75
Close	TENN vs SC 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & total	-12.5	41–20	W	U63
Close	PUR vs FAU 2022 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & situation	-16.25	28–26	L	U57.25
Close	ALA vs MSST 2022 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & total	-21.25	30–6	W	U61.5
Close	WASH vs WSU 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & season form	-15.5	24–21	L	U65.5
Close	OSU vs MD 2023 · Week 6 · close · similar spread	-17	37–17	W	U57
Close	UGA vs MIZ 2023 · Week 10 · close	-14.5	30–21	L	U55.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BOIS L	0-1	0%	0-1	—
ORE –	0-0	—	—	—

Venue/role: BOIS away, as underdog; ORE home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
BOIS O	1-0	100%	1-0
ORE –	0-0	—	1-0

Went over in Q4. Of 114 earlier overs in games with totals 56.5–64.5, 27% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BOIS	7-3 70%	5-4-1 56%	6-3 67%
ORE	8-2 80%	6-3 67%	4-4-1 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

BOIS+2.2 →+4.4▲ 2.2#39

ORE+22.4 →+20.1▼ 2.3#5

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW1

BOIS

Longer bar = better

ORE

Offense

◀ BOIS better

#77

#104

Defense

ORE better ▶

#33

0.0 #69

Turnovers

ORE better ▶

+1.0 #34

66 plays #70

Pace

ORE faster ▶

87 plays #1

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When BOIS has the ball

Advantage: BOIS offense

	BOIS off	ORE def	Edge
Points / game	56.0 #5	14.0 #46	BOIS
Yards / play	9.86 #3	4.62 #56	BOIS
PPA / play	+0.54 #9	−0.21 #16	Even
Success rate	57% #12	28% #15	Even

When ORE has the ball

Advantage: ORE offense

	ORE off	BOIS def	Edge
Points / game	24.0 #96	45.0 #133	ORE
Yards / play	5.60 #81	5.42 #86	Even
PPA / play	+0.11 #80	+0.22 #111	ORE
Success rate	47% #50	40% #86	ORE

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.