Kansas @ Illinois: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 2, 2024)

Sat, Sep 7, 2024, 7:00 PM EDTWeek 2 · at Illinois

Weather at kickoff65°F8 mphgusts 17DryWeather watch ›

Kansas

1-0 · Power #35

final

Final

Illinois

1-0 · Power #44

▲ winner

Closing spread

KU -4.5

✓ ILL W

Total

58.5

▼ Under · 40 pts

Model before kickoff

KU 31–26 ILL

✗ KU (64%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenKU -6.5

CloseKU -4.5

Total58.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenKU -6.5

2 → ILL

CloseKU -4.5

2 pts toward Illinois

Total

Open58.5

no move

Close58.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened KU -6.5 · closed KU -4.5 · moved 2 toward ILLmodel KU -6.5

model KU -6.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 3.5–5.5 since 2023: won 65%, covered 45% (40 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenKU -6.5

CloseKU -4.5

Total58.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 1 games most like KU as a 4.5-point road favorite at ILL, the favorite won 0, covered 0, and 1 went over the total.

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This game: ILL won 23–17 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 1 of the 1 similar games. 40 points stayed under 58.5, as in 0 of 1.

Favorite won

0 of 10%

Normal range · usually 61%

Favorite covered

0 of 10%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

1 of 1100%

Normal range · usually 47%

Only 1 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: underdog by 15 against an average line of 3; 81 points a game (usually 53). Of the 1 over, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 1 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Loose	TA&M @ MIA 2023 · Week 2 · loose · similar situation & spread	-3	33–48	L	O50.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
KU L	0-1	0%	—	0-1
ILL W	1-0	100%	1-0	—

Venue/role: KU away, as favorite; ILL home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
KU U	0-1	0%	1-0
ILL U	0-1	0%	1-0

Stayed under: it needed 29 in the 4th quarter and got 10. 49% of games with totals 54.5–62.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
KU	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	4-5 44%
ILL	5-5 50%	4-6 40%	6-3 67%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

KU 1–0 ILL KU leads · 1 game since 2023 · KU has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 8 2023	Illinois 23 @ Kansas 34	KU -3.5	KU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 135 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

KU+7.2 →+9.1▲ 1.9#24

ILL−0.5 →+1.0▲ 1.5#61

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW1

Longer bar = better

ILL

#20

Offense

◀ KU better

#43

#17

Defense

Even

#14

−1.0 #102

Turnovers

ILL better ▶

+4.0 #2

65 plays #79

Pace

ILL faster ▶

71 plays #43

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When KU has the ball

Even matchup

	KU off	ILL def	Edge
Points / game	48.0 #31	0.0 #12	Even
Yards / play	8.15 #20	3.63 #32	Even
PPA / play	+0.47 #24	−0.55 #5	Even
Success rate	70% #5	19% #8	Even

When ILL has the ball

Advantage: KU defense

	ILL off	KU def	Edge
Points / game	45.0 #38	3.0 #16	KU
Yards / play	6.85 #52	3.48 #28	KU
PPA / play	+0.40 #31	−0.44 #8	KU
Success rate	50% #52	22% #14	KU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.