Sat, Sep 7, 2024, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 2 · at Oklahoma State
Closing spread
OKST -10.5
✓ ARK W
Total
60.5
▲ Over · 70 pts
Model before kickoff
ARK 24–32 OKST
✓ OKST (71%) won
Closing line · ESPN BET
SourceESPN BET closing line
OpenOKST -8.5
CloseOKST -10.5
Total52.5 → 60.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenOKST -8.5
2 → OKST
CloseOKST -10.5
2 pts toward Oklahoma State
Total
Open52.5
▲ 8
Close60.5
Up 8 since the open
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened OKST -8.5 · closed OKST -10.5 · moved 2 toward OKSTmodel ARK -4
model ARK -4
Opened 52.5 · closed 60.5 · moved 8 upmodel 56.5
model 56.5
Openline modelKickoff
Line context
Home favorites of 9.5–11.5 since 2023: won 83%, covered 47% (47 games)ⓘ
Closing line · ESPN BET
SourceESPN BET closing line
OpenOKST -8.5
CloseOKST -10.5
Total52.5 → 60.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Similar games
The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out
No recent game is a close match for 
OKST as a 10.5-point home favorite against ARK. Try “Overall” or remove a filter under Customize.
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History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found
Signals
The data signal, and 3 trends and market moves behind it
Slight Oklahoma State ATS trend Miss
Slight-or-stronger ATS leans went 873-886 (50%) in our 2023–26 backtest.
Slight Over trend Hit
Slight-or-stronger total leans went 509-553 (48%) in our 2023–26 backtest.
None of these signals has beaten the market in our backtest, so this describes why the matchup is interesting — it isn’t a pick.
Market moved toward Oklahoma State
2 pts (OKST -8.5 → OKST -10.5). · Backtest 2024–26: 446-443 (50%)
Total moved up 8
52.5 → 60.5. · Backtest 2024–26: 462-498 (48%)
Small sample warning
Arkansas has 1 game with a line this season; trends this early are mostly noise.
Totals
Over/under before kickoff
Went over in Q4. Of 109 earlier overs in games with totals 56.5–64.5, 28% had cashed by the end of Q3.
When games like this go over ›Last 10 games
Before kickoff, this and last season
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
 ARK | 3-7 30% | 5-5 50% | 8-1 89% |
| OKST | 8-2 80% | 7-3 70% | 7-3 70% |
Matchup stats
Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 135 FBS teams
Power rating this season
pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot
ARK+3.1 →+7.0▲ 3.9#31
OKST+4.1 →+1.3▼ 2.8#59
Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW1
ARKLonger bar = better
OKST#5
Offense
◀ ARK better#60
#21
Defense
◀ ARK better#76
0.0 #74
Turnovers
OKST better ▶+1.0 #46
70 plays #46
Pace
Even72 plays #35
Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense
When ARK has the ball| ARK off | OKST def | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points / game | 70.0 #3 | 20.0 #80 | ARK |
| Yards / play | 9.81 #7 | 5.97 #101 | ARK |
| PPA / play | +0.83 #7 | −0.03 #65 | ARK |
| Success rate | 83% #1 | 35% #56 | ARK |
When OKST has the ball| OKST off | ARK def | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points / game | 44.0 #39 | 0.0 #7 | ARK |
| Yards / play | 5.47 #90 | 2.83 #12 | ARK |
| PPA / play | +0.36 #43 | −0.24 #28 | Even |
| Success rate | 46% #66 | 30% #37 | ARK |
Game conditions
At kickoff
Home field
OKST +2.5home-field points in the model
Weather
71° · 8 mph
gusts 19 mph · at kickoff
Rest
ARK9d
OKST7d
ARK +2 days
Tempo
Fast 142 plays
slowavg 133fast
Schedules, links & other games
Previous and next games, standings, ESPN, and the rest of the week
Oklahoma State← vs SDST · @ TLSA →
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SC @ 
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