Bowling Green @ Penn State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 2, 2024)

Sat, Sep 7, 2024, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 2 · at Penn State

Weather at kickoff66°F11 mphgusts 25DryWindy Over 48% of 274 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Bowling Green

1-0 · Power #75

final

Final

Penn State

1-0 · Power #6

▲ winner

Closing spread

PSU -35.5

✓ BGSU W

Total

51.5

▲ Over · 61 pts

Model before kickoff

BGSU 5–40 PSU

✓ PSU (99%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenPSU -32

ClosePSU -35.5

Total48.5 → 51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenPSU -32

3.5 → PSU

ClosePSU -35.5

3.5 pts toward Penn State

Total

Open48.5

▲ 3

Close51.5

Up 3 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened PSU -32 · closed PSU -35.5 · moved 3.5 toward PSUmodel PSU -29.5

model PSU -29.5

Openline modelKickoff

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenPSU -32

ClosePSU -35.5

Total48.5 → 51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 5 games most like PSU as a 35.5-point home favorite against BGSU, the favorite won 5, covered 1, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: PSU won 34–27; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 5 similar games. 61 points went over 51.5, as in 3 of 5.

Favorite won

5 of 5100%

Normal range · usually 98%

Favorite covered

1 of 520%

Normal range · usually 54%

Went over

3 of 560%

Normal range · usually 52%

Only 5 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 31.4 against an average line of 33; 56.6 points a game (usually 56.2). Of the 1 over, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 5 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	FSU vs USM 2023 · Week 2 · close · similar situation & rest	-31	66–13	W	O54
Close	UGA vs SC 2021 · Week 3 · close · similar season form & rest	-31.5	40–13	L	O47.5
Loose	TEX vs WYO 2023 · Week 3 · loose · similar situation & rest	-31	31–10	L	U48.5
Loose	MICH vs UNLV 2023 · Week 2 · loose · similar situation & rest	-38	35–7	L	U57.5
Loose	CLEM vs LT 2022 · Week 3 · loose · similar situation & rest	-33.5	48–20	L	O53.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BGSU W	1-0	100%	—	—
PSU W	1-0	100%	—	1-0

Venue/role: BGSU away, as underdog; PSU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
BGSU U	0-1	0%	1-0
PSU U	0-1	0%	1-0

Went over in Q4. Of 214 earlier overs in games with totals 47.5–55.5, 35% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BGSU	7-3 70%	7-3 70%	6-3 67%
PSU	7-3 70%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 135 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

BGSU−5.6 →−5.0▲ 0.6#89

PSU+18.8 →+19.5▲ 0.7#7

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW1

BGSU

Longer bar = better

PSU

#27

Offense

◀ BGSU better

#56

#88

Defense

PSU better ▶

#50

0.0 #73

Turnovers

PSU better ▶

+2.0 #19

56 plays #118

Pace

Even

60 plays #107

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When BGSU has the ball

Advantage: BGSU offense

	BGSU off	PSU def	Edge
Points / game	41.0 #47	12.0 #47	Even
Yards / play	8.48 #16	3.73 #35	Even
PPA / play	+0.56 #17	−0.12 #49	BGSU
Success rate	54% #29	37% #69	BGSU

When PSU has the ball

Advantage: PSU offense

	PSU off	BGSU def	Edge
Points / game	34.0 #69	17.0 #74	Even
Yards / play	7.62 #28	6.17 #105	PSU
PPA / play	+0.34 #50	+0.27 #108	PSU
Success rate	43% #76	37% #65	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.