Duke @ Northwestern: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 2, 2024)

Fri, Sep 6, 2024, 9:00 PM EDTWeek 2 · at Northwestern

Weather at kickoff60°F10 mphgusts 22DryWeather watch ›

Duke

1-0 · Power #60

▲ winner

Final

Northwestern

1-0 · Power #83

final

Closing spread

NU -2.5

✓ DUKE W

Total

37.5

▲ Over · 46 pts

Model before kickoff

DUKE 20–22 NU

✗ NU (55%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenNU -2.5

CloseNU -2.5

Total40.5 → 37.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenNU -2.5

no move

CloseNU -2.5

No change since the open

Total

Open40.5

▼ 3

Close37.5

Down 3 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened NU -2.5 · unchangedmodel DUKE -1

model DUKE -1

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 59%, covered 50% (106 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenNU -2.5

CloseNU -2.5

Total40.5 → 37.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like NU as a 2.5-point home favorite against DUKE, the favorite won 5, covered 5, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: DUKE won 26–20 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 46 points went over 37.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 3.8 against an average line of 3.7; 44 points a game (usually 53.2). Of the 2 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	IOWA vs ISU 2022 · Week 2 · very close · similar spread & situation	-3.5	7–10	L	U39
Close	AFA vs SDSU 2021 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & total	-3	14–20	L	U39
Close	VT vs NCSU 2023 · Week 12 · close · similar spread & rest	-2.5	28–35	L	O41
Close	TROY vs JMU 2023 · Week 3 · close · similar spread & rest	-2.5	14–16	L	U46.25
Close	OKST vs BAY 2021 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & spread	-4	24–14	W	U47
Close	NCSU vs MRSH 2023 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & situation	-6.5	48–41	W	O44
Close	PITT vs SYR 2022 · Week 10 · close · similar spread & rest	-3.5	19–9	W	U47.5
Close	PSU vs MINN 2022 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & season form	-5.5	45–17	W	O43
Close	UK vs LOU 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar spread & rest	-3.5	26–13	W	U42.5
Close	TULN vs SMU 2023 · Week 14 · close · similar spread & rest	-2.5	14–26	L	U47.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
DUKE L	0-1	0%	—	—
NU W	1-0	100%	1-0	1-0

Venue/role: DUKE away, as underdog; NU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
DUKE U	0-1	0%	1-0
NU U	0-1	0%	1-0

Went over in OT. Of 37 earlier overs in games with totals 33.5–41.5, 35% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
DUKE	5-5 50%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%
NU	7-3 70%	8-2 80%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

DUKE 1–0 NU DUKE leads · 1 game since 2023 · DUKE has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 16 2023	Northwestern 14 @ Duke 38	DUKE -17	DUKE W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 135 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

DUKE+4.0 →+2.8▼ 1.2#53

NU0.0 →−1.0▼ 1.0#71

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW1

DUKE

Longer bar = better

#97

Offense

Even

#99

#17

Defense

◀ DUKE better

#57

−1.0 #117

Turnovers

NU better ▶

0.0 #89

67 plays #66

Pace

◀ DUKE faster

61 plays #104

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When DUKE has the ball

Advantage: NU defense

	DUKE off	NU def	Edge
Points / game	26.0 #92	6.0 #32	NU
Yards / play	5.22 #95	4.38 #59	NU
PPA / play	+0.03 #100	−0.08 #58	NU
Success rate	38% #100	39% #79	NU

When NU has the ball

Advantage: DUKE defense

	NU off	DUKE def	Edge
Points / game	13.0 #118	3.0 #27	DUKE
Yards / play	5.38 #93	2.33 #7	DUKE
PPA / play	−0.05 #107	−0.28 #21	DUKE
Success rate	43% #78	22% #11	DUKE

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.