Sat, Sep 7, 2024, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 2 · at Tulane
Weather at kickoff74°F11 mphgusts 19Wet0.1 mmWet Over 45% of 309 games since 2023Weather watch ›
1-0 · Power #20
34
▲ winner
Final
@
1-0 · Power #40
27
final
Closing spread
KSU -9.5
✓ TULN W
Total
46.5
▲ Over · 61 pts
Model before kickoff
KSU 29–19 TULN
✓ KSU (74%) won
Closing line · ESPN BET
SourceESPN BET closing line
OpenKSU -10
CloseKSU -9.5
Total48.5 → 46.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
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Market

Open → close
Spread
0.5 pts toward Tulane
Total
Down 2 since the open
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened KSU -10 · closed KSU -9.5 · moved 0.5 toward TULNmodel KSU -8
Opened 48.5 · closed 46.5 · moved 2 downmodel 48
Openline modelKickoff
Line context
Road favorites of 7.5–11.5 since 2023: won 83%, covered 62% (53 games)ⓘ
Closing line · ESPN BET
SourceESPN BET closing line
OpenKSU -10
CloseKSU -9.5
Total48.5 → 46.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

No recent game is a close match for KSU as a 9.5-point road favorite at TULN. Try “Overall” or remove a filter under Customize.

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History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

Signals

The data signal, and 2 trends and market moves behind it
No clear signal on the spread
Slight Under trend Miss
Slight-or-stronger total leans went 509-553 (48%) in our 2023–26 backtest.

None of these signals has beaten the market in our backtest, so this describes why the matchup is interesting — it isn’t a pick.

Total moved down 2
48.5 → 46.5. · Backtest 2024–26: 462-498 (48%)
Small sample warning
Kansas State has 1 game with a line this season; trends this early are mostly noise.
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Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 135 FBS teams
Power rating this season
pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot
KSU+11.5 →+12.2▲ 0.7#18
TULN+1.3 →+2.8▲ 1.5#51
Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW1

KSU
Longer bar = better
TULN
#32
Offense
Even
#20
#17
Defense
◀ KSU better
#39
−2.0 #124
Turnovers
TULN better ▶
+2.0 #20
56 plays #119
Pace
Even
56 plays #123
Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense
When KSU has the ball
Even matchup
KSU offTULN defEdge
Points / game 41.0 #48 0.0 #13 TULN
Yards / play 8.02 #22 3.79 #37 Even
PPA / play +0.35 #47 −0.53 #6 TULN
Success rate 60% #12 43% #98 KSU
When TULN has the ball
Even matchup
TULN offKSU defEdge
Points / game 52.0 #21 6.0 #31 Even
Yards / play 8.43 #17 2.44 #8 Even
PPA / play +0.59 #10 −0.31 #20 Even
Success rate 54% #31 19% #7 KSU

Game conditions

At kickoff
Home field
TULN +2.5
home-field points in the model
Weather
74° · 11 mph
gusts 19 mph · 0.146 in rain · wind lowers scoring
Rest
KSU7d
TULN9d
TULN +2 days
Tempo
Slow 112 plays
slowavg 133fast

Schedules, links & other games

Previous and next games, standings, ESPN, and the rest of the week