Sat, Sep 7, 2024, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 2 · at Tulane
Closing spread
KSU -9.5
✓ TULN W
Total
46.5
▲ Over · 61 pts
Model before kickoff
KSU 29–19 TULN
✓ KSU (74%) won
Closing line · ESPN BET
SourceESPN BET closing line
OpenKSU -10
CloseKSU -9.5
Total48.5 → 46.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenKSU -10
0.5 → TULN
CloseKSU -9.5
0.5 pts toward Tulane
Total
Open48.5
▼ 2
Close46.5
Down 2 since the open
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened KSU -10 · closed KSU -9.5 · moved 0.5 toward TULNmodel KSU -8
model KSU -8
Opened 48.5 · closed 46.5 · moved 2 downmodel 48
model 48
Openline modelKickoff
Line context
Road favorites of 7.5–11.5 since 2023: won 83%, covered 62% (53 games)ⓘ
Closing line · ESPN BET
SourceESPN BET closing line
OpenKSU -10
CloseKSU -9.5
Total48.5 → 46.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Similar games
The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out
No recent game is a close match for
KSU as a 9.5-point road favorite at TULN. Try “Overall” or remove a filter under Customize.
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Show up togames
History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found
Signals
The data signal, and 2 trends and market moves behind it
No clear signal on the spread
Slight Under trend Miss
Slight-or-stronger total leans went 509-553 (48%) in our 2023–26 backtest.
None of these signals has beaten the market in our backtest, so this describes why the matchup is interesting — it isn’t a pick.
Total moved down 2
48.5 → 46.5. · Backtest 2024–26: 462-498 (48%)
Small sample warning
Kansas State has 1 game with a line this season; trends this early are mostly noise.
Totals
Over/under before kickoff
Went over in Q4. Of 165 earlier overs in games with totals 42.5–50.5, 33% had cashed by the end of Q3.
When games like this go over ›Last 10 games
Before kickoff, this and last season
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7-3 70% | 5-4-1 56% | 4-5 44% | |
| 8-2 80% | 4-6 40% | 2-8 20% |
Matchup stats
Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 135 FBS teams
Power rating this season
pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot
KSU+11.5 →+12.2▲ 0.7#18
TULN+1.3 →+2.8▲ 1.5#51
Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW1
Longer bar = better
#32
Offense
Even#20
#17
Defense
◀ KSU better#39
−2.0 #124
Turnovers
TULN better ▶+2.0 #20
56 plays #119
Pace
Even56 plays #123
Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense
| KSU off | TULN def | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points / game | 41.0 #48 | 0.0 #13 | TULN |
| Yards / play | 8.02 #22 | 3.79 #37 | Even |
| PPA / play | +0.35 #47 | −0.53 #6 | TULN |
| Success rate | 60% #12 | 43% #98 | KSU |
| TULN off | KSU def | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points / game | 52.0 #21 | 6.0 #31 | Even |
| Yards / play | 8.43 #17 | 2.44 #8 | Even |
| PPA / play | +0.59 #10 | −0.31 #20 | Even |
| Success rate | 54% #31 | 19% #7 | KSU |
Game conditions
At kickoff
Home field
home-field points in the model
Weather
74° · 11 mph
gusts 19 mph · 0.146 in rain · wind lowers scoring
Rest
KSU7d
TULN9d
TULN +2 days
Tempo
Slow 112 plays
slowavg 133fast
Schedules, links & other games
Previous and next games, standings, ESPN, and the rest of the week

