UTSA @ Texas State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 2, 2024)

Sat, Sep 7, 2024, 4:00 PM EDTWeek 2 · at Texas State

Weather at kickoff84°F17 mphgusts 34DryWindy Over 48% of 274 games since 2023Weather watch ›

UTSA

1-0 · Power #82

final

Final

Texas State

1-0 · Power #54

▲ winner

Closing spread

TXST -2.5

✓ TXST W

Total

58.5

▲ Over · 59 pts

Model before kickoff

UTSA 26–27 TXST

✓ TXST (54%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTXST -1

CloseTXST -2.5

Total60.5 → 58.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenTXST -1

1.5 → TXST

CloseTXST -2.5

1.5 pts toward Texas State

Total

Open60.5

▼ 2

Close58.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened TXST -1 · closed TXST -2.5 · moved 1.5 toward TXSTmodel UTSA -2.5

model UTSA -2.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 58%, covered 49% (110 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTXST -1

CloseTXST -2.5

Total60.5 → 58.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TXST as a 2.5-point home favorite against UTSA, the favorite won 5, covered 5, and 5 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: TXST won 49–10; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 59 points went over 58.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

5 of 956%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 2.5 against an average line of 2.5; 52.1 points a game (usually 53.2). Of the 2 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	NIU vs VAN 2022 · Week 3 · close · similar situation & rest	-2.5	28–38	L	O58.5
Close	TULN vs UAB 2021 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & total	-2.5	21–28	L	U54.5
Close	ILL vs UVA 2022 · Week 2 · close · similar rest & spread	-4	24–3	W	U55
Close	MD vs PUR 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & total	-3	29–31	L	O59.5
Close	GAST vs MRSH 2023 · Week 7 · close · similar spread & season form	-1.5	41–24	W	O53.5
Close	UCF vs CIN 2022 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & spread	-1.5	25–21	W	U55.5
Close	UCLA vs ASU 2021 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & season form	-3	23–42	L	O56
Close	UAB vs UL 2023 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & spread	-2	21–41	L	O59.5
Close	DUKE vs UVA 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & spread	-2	38–17	W	P55
Close	WMU vs SJSU 2021 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & situation	-2.5	23–3	W	U61.75

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UTSA –	0-0	—	—	—
TXST –	0-0	—	—	—

Venue/role: UTSA away, as underdog; TXST home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UTSA –	0-0	—	1-0
TXST –	0-0	—	1-0

Went over in Q4. Of 158 earlier overs in games with totals 54.5–62.5, 33% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UTSA	9-1 90%	6-2-1 75%	3-5 38%
TXST	6-4 60%	4-5 44%	5-4 56%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

UTSA 1–0 TXST UTSA leads · 1 game since 2023 · UTSA has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 9 2023	Texas State 13 @ UTSA 20	UTSA -14	TXST W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 135 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

UTSA+1.0 →+0.1▼ 0.9#66

TXST−3.2 →−4.5▼ 1.3#87

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW1

UTSA

Longer bar = better

TXST

#81

Offense

Even

#72

#40

Defense

◀ UTSA better

#57

0.0 #82

Turnovers

◀ UTSA better

−2.0 #126

72 plays #34

Pace

TXST faster ▶

81 plays #13

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UTSA has the ball

Advantage: TXST defense

	UTSA off	TXST def	Edge
Points / game	28.0 #84	27.0 #94	Even
Yards / play	5.78 #83	4.57 #63	Even
PPA / play	+0.21 #69	−0.10 #54	Even
Success rate	42% #87	22% #15	TXST

When TXST has the ball

Advantage: UTSA defense

	TXST off	UTSA def	Edge
Points / game	34.0 #68	16.0 #69	Even
Yards / play	6.00 #73	3.78 #36	UTSA
PPA / play	+0.16 #81	−0.22 #33	UTSA
Success rate	46% #65	25% #21	UTSA

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.