Louisiana @ Kennesaw State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 2, 2024)

Sat, Sep 7, 2024, 7:00 PM EDTWeek 2 · at Kennesaw State

Weather at kickoff78°F8 mphgusts 21DryWeather watch ›

Louisiana

1-0 · Power #71

▲ winner

Final

Kennesaw State

0-1 · Power #133

final

Closing spread

UL -14.5

✓ UL W

Total

45.5

▼ Under · 44 pts

Model before kickoff

UL 33–20 KENN

✓ UL (83%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUL -16.5

CloseUL -14.5

Total46.5 → 45.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenUL -16.5

2 → KENN

CloseUL -14.5

2 pts toward Kennesaw State

Total

Open46.5

▼ 1

Close45.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened UL -16.5 · closed UL -14.5 · moved 2 toward KENNmodel UL -9.5

model UL -9.5

Openline modelKickoff

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUL -16.5

CloseUL -14.5

Total46.5 → 45.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 4 games most like UL as a 14.5-point road favorite at KENN, the favorite won 2, covered 1, and 2 went over the total.

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This game: UL won 34–10; the favorite covered, as in 1 of the 4 similar games. 44 points stayed under 45.5, as in 2 of 4.

Favorite won

2 of 450%

Normal range · usually 83%

Favorite covered

1 of 425%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

2 of 450%

Normal range · usually 48%

Only 4 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 8.5 against an average line of 17.1; 44.5 points a game (usually 54.5). When games like this go over ›

All 4 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	MRSH @ BGSU 2022 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & season form	-17	31–34	L	O50
Close	BAY @ KU 2021 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & season form	-17	45–7	W	O48.5
Loose	RUTG @ TEM 2022 · Week 3 · loose · similar rest & situation	-18	16–14	L	U42.75
Loose	AFA @ WYO 2022 · Week 3 · loose · similar rest & situation	-16.5	14–17	L	U47

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UL –	0-0	—	—	—
KENN –	0-0	—	—	—

Venue/role: UL away, as favorite; KENN home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UL –	0-0	—	1-0
KENN –	0-0	—	0-1

Stayed under: it needed 5 in the 4th quarter and got 3. 52% of games with totals 41.5–49.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UL	4-6 40%	4-4-1 50%	5-4 56%
KENNlast 2	0-2 0%	1-0 100%	1-0 100%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 135 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

UL−5.1 →−4.4▲ 0.7#86

KENN−17.4 →−16.5▲ 0.9#131

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW1

Longer bar = better

KENN

#33

Offense

◀ UL better

#122

#56

Defense

◀ UL better

#96

0.0 #87

Turnovers

Even

0.0 #90

66 plays #76

Pace

Even

67 plays #67

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UL has the ball

Advantage: UL offense

	UL off	KENN def	Edge
Points / game	40.0 #52	28.0 #103	UL
Yards / play	7.29 #37	5.78 #92	UL
PPA / play	+0.54 #19	+0.21 #102	UL
Success rate	55% #25	42% #87	UL

When KENN has the ball

Advantage: UL defense

	KENN off	UL def	Edge
Points / game	16.0 #113	10.0 #46	UL
Yards / play	3.78 #121	5.02 #77	UL
PPA / play	−0.22 #123	−0.22 #34	UL
Success rate	25% #131	37% #68	UL

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.