San José State @ Air Force: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 2, 2024)

Sat, Sep 7, 2024, 7:00 PM EDTWeek 2 · at Air Force · Conference game

Weather at kickoff75°F6 mphgusts 17DryWeather watch ›

San José State

1-0 · Power #86

▲ winner

Final

Air Force

1-0 · Power #108

final

Closing spread

AFA -1.5

✓ SJSU W

Total

43.5

▼ Under · 24 pts

Model before kickoff

SJSU 24–25 AFA

✗ AFA (54%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenAFA -4.5

CloseAFA -1.5

Total46.5 → 43.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenAFA -4.5

3 → SJSU

CloseAFA -1.5

3 pts toward San José State

Total

Open46.5

▼ 3

Close43.5

Down 3 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened AFA -4.5 · closed AFA -1.5 · moved 3 toward SJSUmodel AFA -1

model AFA -1

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 0.5–2.5 since 2023: won 48%, covered 45% (62 games)ⓘ

Crossed 3Too few earlier games to rateⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenAFA -4.5

CloseAFA -1.5

Total46.5 → 43.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like AFA as a 1.5-point home favorite against SJSU, the favorite won 5, covered 5, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: SJSU won 17–7 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 24 points stayed under 43.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 56%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 3.3 against an average line of 2.6; 44.1 points a game (usually 53.3). Of the 4 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	AFA vs UNLV 2023 · Week 12 · close · similar rest	-3	27–31	L	O46.5
Loose	AFA vs SDSU 2021 · Week 8 · loose · similar rest & spread	-3	14–20	L	U39
Loose	JMU vs USA 2023 · Week 5 · loose · similar rest & situation	-3	31–23	W	O49.5
Loose	UAB vs FAU 2021 · Week 6 · loose · similar rest & spread	-3.5	31–14	W	U49
Loose	BYU vs CIN 2023 · Week 5 · loose · similar spread & situation	-1	35–27	W	O48
Loose	OKST vs BAY 2021 · Week 5 · loose · similar rest & situation	-4	24–14	W	U47
Loose	TROY vs JMU 2023 · Week 3 · loose · similar situation & total	-2.5	14–16	L	U46.25
Loose	TULN vs SMU 2023 · Week 14 · loose · similar rest & total	-2.5	14–26	L	U47.5
Loose	UK vs FLA 2023 · Week 5 · loose · similar spread & rest	-1.5	33–14	W	O45
Loose	AFA vs BOIS 2022 · Week 8 · loose · similar spread & total	-2.25	14–19	L	U46.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SJSU W	1-0	100%	—	—
AFA L	0-1	0%	0-1	0-1

Venue/role: SJSU away, as underdog; AFA home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
SJSU O	1-0	100%	1-0
AFA U	0-1	0%	1-0

Stayed under: it needed 23 in the 4th quarter and got 3. 53% of games with totals 39.5–47.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SJSU	7-3 70%	6-3-1 67%	5-4 56%
AFA	6-4 60%	3-6-1 33%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

SJSU 3–6 AFA AFA leads · 9 games since 1996 · AFA has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 22 2023	Air Force 45 @ San José State 20	AFA -6.5	AFA W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 135 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

SJSU−2.2 →−3.1▼ 0.9#79

AFA−9.1 →−8.3▲ 0.8#104

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW1

SJSU

Longer bar = better

AFA

#65

Offense

◀ SJSU better

#109

#69

Defense

AFA better ▶

#32

+2.0 #13

Turnovers

Even

+3.0 #6

66 plays #69

Pace

AFA faster ▶

69 plays #52

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When SJSU has the ball

Advantage: AFA defense

	SJSU off	AFA def	Edge
Points / game	42.0 #41	6.0 #29	Even
Yards / play	5.86 #78	3.81 #38	AFA
PPA / play	+0.20 #71	−0.24 #30	AFA
Success rate	45% #71	29% #32	AFA

When AFA has the ball

Advantage: SJSU defense

	AFA off	SJSU def	Edge
Points / game	21.0 #103	24.0 #86	Even
Yards / play	3.43 #128	4.34 #58	SJSU
PPA / play	+0.01 #102	−0.12 #50	SJSU
Success rate	38% #103	40% #82	SJSU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.