Sat, Aug 31, 2024, 4:00 PM EDTWeek 1 · at Georgia Southern
Closing spread
BOIS -12.5
✓ GASO W
Total
57.5
▲ Over · 101 pts
Model before kickoff
BOIS 36–24 GASO
✓ BOIS (79%) won
Closing line · ESPN BET
SourceESPN BET closing line
OpenBOIS -10
CloseBOIS -12.5
Total57.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenBOIS -10
2.5 → BOIS
CloseBOIS -12.5
2.5 pts toward Boise State
Total
Open57.5
no move
Close57.5
No change since the open
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened BOIS -10 · closed BOIS -12.5 · moved 2.5 toward BOISmodel BOIS -5.5
model BOIS -5.5
Opened 57.5 · unchangedmodel 60
model 60
Openline modelKickoff
Closing line · ESPN BET
SourceESPN BET closing line
OpenBOIS -10
CloseBOIS -12.5
Total57.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Similar games
The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out
In the 10 games most like 
BOIS as a 12.5-point road favorite at GASO, the favorite won 8, covered 5, and 6 went over the total.
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This game: BOIS won 56–45; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 101 points went over 57.5, as in 6 of 10.
Favorite won
8 of 1080%
Normal range · usually 81%
Favorite covered
5 of 1050%
Normal range · usually 48%
Went over
6 of 1060%
Normal range · usually 51%
All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 10 against an average line of 11.8; 60.2 points a game (usually 55). Of the 2 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›
All 10 games
| Match | Game | Line | Final | Covered | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Very close |  CCU @  BUFF2021 · Week 3 · very close · similar situation & total |
-14 | 28–25 | L | U58 |
| Very close |
2023 · Week 4 · very close · similar spread & total |
-13 | 21–20 | L | U60 |
| Very close |  TULN @  USF2022 · Week 7 · very close · similar total & spread |
-12 | 45–31 | W | O55 |
| Very close |  AFA @  USU2022 · Week 6 · very close · similar spread |
-11.5 | 27–34 | L | O53.75 |
| Very close |  JMU @  ARST2022 · Week 6 · very close · similar spread & team ratings |
-11.5 | 42–20 | W | O55 |
| Very close |
2023 · Week 6 · very close · similar total & spread |
-14 | 49–34 | W | O56 |
| Close |  FRES @  HAW2021 · Week 5 · close · similar team ratings |
-10.75 | 24–27 | L | U64.25 |
| Close |  BYU @ USF2022 · Week 1 · close · similar situation & total |
-11.5 | 50–21 | W | O58.5 |
| Close |  UL @  USA2021 · Week 5 · close · similar spread |
-12 | 20–18 | L | U52.75 |
| Close |
2023 · Week 8 · close · similar team ratings & total |
-7.5 | 45–21 | W | O62 |
ARIZ
STAN
UTSA
TEM
MEM
UABHistory, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found
Signals
The data signal, and 2 trends and market moves behind it
Slight Boise State ATS trend Miss
Slight-or-stronger ATS leans went 873-886 (50%) in our 2023–26 backtest.
No clear signal on the total
None of these signals has beaten the market in our backtest, so this describes why the matchup is interesting — it isn’t a pick.
Market moved toward Boise State
2.5 pts (BOIS -10 → BOIS -12.5). · Backtest 2024–26: 446-443 (50%)
Small sample warning
Boise State have 0 games with a line this season; trends this early are mostly noise.
Totals
Over/under before kickoff
Went over in Q3. Of 170 earlier overs in games with totals 53.5–61.5, 32% had cashed by the end of Q3.
When games like this go over ›Last 10 games
Before kickoff, this and last season
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| BOIS | 6-4 60% | 5-3-2 63% | 6-3 67% |
 GASO | 4-6 40% | 3-7 30% | 6-4 60% |
Game conditions
At kickoff
Home field
GASO +2.5home-field points in the model
Weather
91° · 6 mph
gusts 14 mph · at kickoff
Rest
BOIS1st game
GASO1st game
Even
Travel
BOIS 2,009 mi
2 time zones
Schedules, links & other games
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