Western Michigan @ Marshall: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 5, 2024)

Sat, Sep 28, 2024, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 5 · at Marshall

Weather at kickoff70°F5 mphDryWeather watch ›

Western Michigan

1-2 · Power #107

final

Final

Marshall

1-2 · Power #69

▲ winner

Closing spread

MRSH -3.5

✓ MRSH W

Total

52.5

▼ Under · 47 pts

Model before kickoff

WMU 28–32 MRSH

✓ MRSH (63%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMRSH -6

CloseMRSH -3.5

Total53.5 → 52.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenMRSH -6

2.5 → WMU

CloseMRSH -3.5

2.5 pts toward Western Michigan

Total

Open53.5

▼ 1

Close52.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened MRSH -6 · closed MRSH -3.5 · moved 2.5 toward WMUmodel MRSH -9

model MRSH -9

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 2.5–4.5 since 2023: won 57%, covered 48% (128 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 44% (43 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMRSH -6

CloseMRSH -3.5

Total53.5 → 52.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like MRSH as a 3.5-point home favorite against WMU, the favorite won 7, covered 4, and 5 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: MRSH won 27–20; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 47 points stayed under 52.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 58%

Favorite covered

4 of 944%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 48%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 5.5 against an average line of 4.4; 51.3 points a game (usually 53.1). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	USF vs TEM 2021 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & spread	-1.5	34–14	W	U55
Close	CMU vs BGSU 2022 · Week 8 · close · similar total & season form	-6	18–34	L	O50.5
Close	ARMY vs ULM 2022 · Week 8 · close · similar situation & total	-6.5	48–24	W	O55.5
Close	BUFF vs OHIO 2021 · Week 7 · close · similar total & team ratings	-7.5	27–26	L	U54.5
Close	OHIO vs BGSU 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar total & season form	-5.5	38–14	W	U52.5
Close	STAN vs ASU 2022 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & total	-3	15–14	L	U52
Close	MRSH vs ARST 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar total & team ratings	-1.5	35–21	W	O52.5
Close	BUFF vs KENT 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar total	-4.5	27–30	L	O51
Close	FAU vs TLSA 2023 · Week 6 · close · similar total & situation	-3	20–17	P	U54.5
Close	NIU vs CMU 2022 · Week 10 · close · similar total	-4.5	22–35	L	O54

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
WMU WLL	1-2	33%	1-1	1-1
MRSH WWW	3-0	100%	1-0	1-0

Venue/role: WMU away, as underdog; MRSH home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
WMU UOO	2-1	67%	1-2
MRSH UUO	1-2	33%	1-2

Stayed under: it needed 16 in the 4th quarter and got 10. 53% of games with totals 48.5–56.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
WMU	3-7 30%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%
MRSH	3-7 30%	5-5 50%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

WMU−10.3 →−11.4▼ 1.1#112

MRSH−5.5 →−5.4▲ 0.1#90

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW4

WMU

Longer bar = better

MRSH

#50

Offense

◀ WMU better

#96

#125

Defense

MRSH better ▶

#89

−0.7 #99

Turnovers

MRSH better ▶

+0.3 #64

54 plays #136

Pace

MRSH faster ▶

67 plays #63

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When WMU has the ball

Advantage: WMU offense

	WMU off	MRSH def	Edge
Points / game	24.3 #100	27.7 #92	Even
Yards / play	6.44 #43	5.55 #79	WMU
PPA / play	+0.32 #23	+0.18 #102	WMU
Success rate	48% #32	42% #83	WMU

When MRSH has the ball

Advantage: MRSH offense

	MRSH off	WMU def	Edge
Points / game	24.3 #101	38.3 #130	MRSH
Yards / play	5.46 #98	6.14 #107	Even
PPA / play	+0.10 #92	+0.31 #131	MRSH
Success rate	41% #93	52% #133	MRSH

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

WMU scoring against the MRSH defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WMU scored	4.7 #87	9.3 #63	14.0 #78	4.7 #100	5.7 #93	10.3 #101
MRSH allowed	4.7 #71	8.0 #83	12.7 #80	10.3 #129	4.7 #54	15.0 #108

MRSH scoring against the WMU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MRSH scored	4.7 #87	8.0 #76	12.7 #92	4.7 #100	7.0 #61	11.7 #86
WMU allowed	7.0 #100	12.7 #127	19.7 #121	8.0 #108	10.7 #125	18.7 #127

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.