Western Michigan @ Ball State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 6, 2024)

Sat, Oct 5, 2024, 2:00 PM EDTWeek 6 · at Ball State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff74°F10 mphgusts 19DryWeather watch ›

Western Michigan

1-3 · Power #107

▲ winner

Final

Ball State

1-3 · Power #126

final

Closing spread

WMU -10.5

✓ BALL W

Total

57.5

▲ Over · 87 pts

Model before kickoff

WMU 33–23 BALL

✓ WMU (76%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenWMU -8.5

CloseWMU -10.5

Total56.5 → 57.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenWMU -8.5

2 → WMU

CloseWMU -10.5

2 pts toward Western Michigan

Total

Open56.5

▲ 1

Close57.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened WMU -8.5 · closed WMU -10.5 · moved 2 toward WMUmodel WMU -6.5

model WMU -6.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 8.5–12.5 since 2023: won 84%, covered 58% (50 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 44% (59 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenWMU -8.5

CloseWMU -10.5

Total56.5 → 57.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like WMU as a 10.5-point road favorite at BALL, the favorite won 7, covered 3, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: WMU won 45–42; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 87 points went over 57.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 75%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 8.2 against an average line of 10.1; 59.6 points a game (usually 55.2). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	OHIO @ AKR 2021 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & situation	-9.75	34–17	W	U55
Very close	USU @ TEM 2024 · Week 4 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-6.5	29–45	L	O53.5
Close	USU @ HAW 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & situation	-10.5	41–34	L	O55
Close	UNT @ FIU 2021 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & spread	-10	49–7	W	U57.25
Close	NEV @ HAW 2022 · Week 7 · close · similar situation & rest	-6.25	16–31	L	U51.5
Close	BUFF @ AKR 2021 · Week 8 · close · similar total & situation	-13.25	45–10	W	U58
Close	BGSU @ AKR 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & situation	-9	31–28	L	O49.5
Close	WYO @ HAW 2022 · Week 9 · close · similar situation & rest	-11.5	27–20	L	U50.75
Close	UNLV @ HAW 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & spread	-11	25–31	L	U56.5
Close	ASU @ COLO 2022 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & situation	-13	42–34	L	O48.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
WMU WLLL	1-3	25%	1-2	0-1
BALL W–WL	2-1	67%	1-0	1-1

Venue/role: WMU away, as favorite; BALL home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
WMU UOOU	2-2	50%	1-3
BALL O–OO	3-0	100%	1-3

Went over in Q3. Of 230 earlier overs in games with totals 53.5–61.5, 35% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
WMU	3-7 30%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%
BALL	4-6 40%	8-1 89%	4-5 44%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

WMU 30–22 BALL WMU leads · 52 games since 1971 · WMU has won the last 4 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 30 2023	Ball State 24 @ Western Michigan 42	WMU -1.5	WMU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

WMU−10.3 →−11.1▼ 0.8#111

BALL−11.2 →−19.2▼ 8.0#130

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW5

WMU

Longer bar = better

BALL

#63

Offense

◀ WMU better

#118

#125

Defense

Even

#135

−0.5 #96

Turnovers

Even

−0.5 #99

58 plays #131

Pace

BALL faster ▶

70 plays #40

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When WMU has the ball

Advantage: WMU offense

	WMU off	BALL def	Edge
Points / game	23.3 #100	49.0 #136	WMU
Yards / play	5.89 #69	8.65 #136	WMU
PPA / play	+0.23 #40	+0.43 #137	WMU
Success rate	46% #43	50% #129	WMU

When BALL has the ball

Even matchup

	BALL off	WMU def	Edge
Points / game	20.8 #113	35.5 #126	Even
Yards / play	4.40 #130	6.24 #114	Even
PPA / play	−0.07 #127	+0.28 #128	Even
Success rate	40% #101	50% #130	BALL

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

WMU scoring against the BALL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WMU scored	4.3 #96	7.0 #91	11.3 #98	7.0 #62	5.0 #106	12.0 #82
BALL allowed	9.8 #127	12.8 #128	22.5 #131	9.3 #122	17.3 #134	26.5 #134

BALL scoring against the WMU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BALL scored	4.3 #96	3.5 #126	7.8 #123	3.5 #115	9.5 #27	13.0 #71
WMU allowed	7.0 #100	12.0 #124	19.0 #123	6.8 #88	9.8 #120	16.5 #117

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.