Bowling Green @ Akron: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 6, 2024)

Sat, Oct 5, 2024, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 6 · at Akron · Conference game

Weather at kickoff70°F1 mphgusts 7DryWeather watch ›

Bowling Green

1-3 · Power #75

▲ winner

Final

Akron

1-4 · Power #124

final

Closing spread

BGSU -16.5

✓ AKR W

Total

48.5

▼ Under · 47 pts

Model before kickoff

BGSU 34–18 AKR

✓ BGSU (88%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenBGSU -15

CloseBGSU -16.5

Total51.5 → 48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenBGSU -15

1.5 → BGSU

CloseBGSU -16.5

1.5 pts toward Bowling Green

Total

Open51.5

▼ 3

Close48.5

Down 3 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened BGSU -15 · closed BGSU -16.5 · moved 1.5 toward BGSUmodel BGSU -14.5

model BGSU -14.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 54% (46 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenBGSU -15

CloseBGSU -16.5

Total51.5 → 48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like BGSU as a 16.5-point road favorite at AKR, the favorite won 9, covered 5, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: BGSU won 27–20; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 47 points stayed under 48.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 86%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 13 against an average line of 16.4; 47.8 points a game (usually 53.8). Of the 3 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	USU @ UNM 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & rest	-17	35–10	W	U48
Very close	BUFF @ MASS 2022 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & spread	-17	34–7	W	U47.5
Close	M-OH @ KENT 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & situation	-14.5	23–3	W	U49.5
Close	DUKE @ MTSU 2024 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & total	-14.5	45–17	W	O51
Close	BOIS @ UTEP 2022 · Week 4 · close · similar spread & rest	-16.25	10–27	L	U44.5
Close	TOL @ BALL 2023 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & spread	-17.5	13–6	L	U48
Close	EMU @ KENT 2024 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & situation	-14	52–33	W	O46
Close	WASH @ ARIZ 2021 · Week 8 · close · similar spread & situation	-17.25	21–16	L	U45.5
Close	WVU @ KU 2021 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & spread	-15.5	34–28	L	O55.5
Close	NIU @ KENT 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar season form & situation	-20.5	37–27	L	O44.75

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BGSU WW–L	2-1	67%	1-0	1-1
AKR WLLLL	1-4	20%	0-1	1-3

Venue/role: BGSU away, as favorite; AKR home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
BGSU UO–O	2-1	67%	1-3
AKR OOOOU	4-1	80%	1-4

Stayed under: it needed 22 in the 4th quarter and got 20. 53% of games with totals 44.5–52.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BGSU	5-5 50%	6-3 67%	7-2 78%
AKR	2-8 20%	3-6-1 33%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

BGSU 21–10 AKR BGSU leads · 31 games since 1985 · AKR has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 21 2023	Akron 14 @ Bowling Green 41	BGSU -7	BGSU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

BGSU−5.6 →−1.8▲ 3.8#75

AKR−13.9 →−17.7▼ 3.8#129

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW5

BGSU

Longer bar = better

AKR

#63

Offense

◀ BGSU better

#130

#93

Defense

◀ BGSU better

#123

−0.5 #100

Turnovers

Even

−0.6 #104

63 plays #103

Pace

◀ BGSU faster

61 plays #117

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When BGSU has the ball

Advantage: BGSU offense

	BGSU off	AKR def	Edge
Points / game	28.8 #73	40.2 #132	BGSU
Yards / play	6.33 #44	6.29 #118	BGSU
PPA / play	+0.19 #54	+0.25 #121	BGSU
Success rate	42% #80	47% #120	BGSU

When AKR has the ball

Advantage: BGSU defense

	AKR off	BGSU def	Edge
Points / game	14.2 #134	26.8 #88	BGSU
Yards / play	4.01 #133	6.15 #105	BGSU
PPA / play	−0.10 #130	+0.24 #119	Even
Success rate	36% #122	39% #61	BGSU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

BGSU scoring against the AKR defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BGSU scored	9.3 #25	7.8 #77	17.0 #52	7.0 #63	4.8 #109	11.8 #91
AKR allowed	9.2 #122	9.0 #99	18.2 #117	9.4 #122	12.6 #131	22.0 #132

AKR scoring against the BGSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
AKR scored	2.6 #125	7.6 #80	10.2 #108	2.0 #127	2.0 #133	4.0 #133
BGSU allowed	7.0 #100	6.3 #53	13.3 #85	5.3 #61	8.3 #108	13.5 #93

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.