Miami (OH) @ Toledo: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 6, 2024)

Sat, Oct 5, 2024, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 6 · at Toledo · Conference game

Weather at kickoff69°F9 mphgusts 20DryWeather watch ›

Miami (OH)

1-3 · Power #73

final

Final

Toledo

3-1 · Power #88

▲ winner

Closing spread

TOL -5.5

✓ TOL W

Total

43.5

▲ Over · 50 pts

Model before kickoff

M-OH 19–25 TOL

✓ TOL (66%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTOL -6.5

CloseTOL -5.5

Total43.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenTOL -6.5

1 → M-OH

CloseTOL -5.5

1 pt toward Miami (OH)

Total

Open43.5

no move

Close43.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened TOL -6.5 · closed TOL -5.5 · moved 1 toward M-OHmodel TOL -6.5

model TOL -6.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 4.5–6.5 since 2023: won 66%, covered 51% (68 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 52% (42 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTOL -6.5

CloseTOL -5.5

Total43.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TOL as a 5.5-point home favorite against M-OH, the favorite won 9, covered 6, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: TOL won 30–20; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 50 points went over 43.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 62%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 7.1 against an average line of 5.9; 39.7 points a game (usually 53). Of the 3 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	MRSH vs VT 2023 · Week 4 · very close · similar spread & rest	-5.5	24–17	W	U41.5
Close	RICE vs FAU 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar spread & situation	-3.5	24–21	L	U46.75
Close	NMSU vs SHSU 2023 · Week 7 · close · similar situation & total	-4	27–13	W	U42.5
Close	ARMY vs RICE 2024 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & total	-7.5	37–14	W	O43.5
Close	RUTG vs MSU 2023 · Week 7 · close · similar spread & situation	-4.5	27–24	L	O39.5
Close	DUKE vs PITT 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar spread & situation	-4.5	30–19	W	O40.75
Close	FAU vs ECU 2023 · Week 11 · close · similar total & situation	-7.5	7–22	L	U44.75
Close	DUKE vs VT 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar season form & situation	-10	24–7	W	U50
Close	RICE vs ECU 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar situation & spread	-3.5	24–17	W	U47
Close	TROY vs ARMY 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar total	-8.5	10–9	L	U45.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
M-OH LLWL	1-3	25%	1-1	1-2
TOL WLWL	2-2	50%	1-1	1-2

Venue/role: M-OH away, as underdog; TOL home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
M-OH UUUU	0-4	0%	1-3
TOL OOOU	3-1	75%	3-1

Went over in Q4. Of 155 earlier overs in games with totals 39.5–47.5, 33% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
M-OH	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	1-9 10%
TOL	7-3 70%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

M-OH 1–1 TOL Series tied · 2 games since 2023 · M-OH has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Dec 2 2023	Miami (OH) 23 @ Toledo 14	TOL -6	M-OH W
Oct 21 2023	Toledo 21 @ Miami (OH) 17	TOL -2	TOL W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

M-OH−4.7 →−6.7▼ 2.0#96

TOL−0.4 →−2.8▼ 2.4#79

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW5

M-OH

Longer bar = better

TOL

#122

Offense

TOL better ▶

#62

#89

Defense

TOL better ▶

#40

−0.5 #97

Turnovers

TOL better ▶

+1.0 #23

62 plays #115

Pace

TOL faster ▶

66 plays #77

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When M-OH has the ball

Advantage: TOL defense

	M-OH off	TOL def	Edge
Points / game	12.0 #137	19.0 #41	TOL
Yards / play	4.98 #118	5.00 #46	TOL
PPA / play	−0.05 #125	0.00 #33	TOL
Success rate	39% #107	37% #38	TOL

When TOL has the ball

Advantage: TOL offense

	TOL off	M-OH def	Edge
Points / game	37.3 #22	22.0 #60	TOL
Yards / play	5.66 #86	5.86 #96	Even
PPA / play	+0.16 #70	+0.12 #89	Even
Success rate	43% #69	44% #109	TOL

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

M-OH scoring against the TOL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
M-OH scored	2.5 #127	2.3 #134	4.8 #134	3.5 #116	3.0 #129	6.5 #128
TOL allowed	1.8 #11	6.5 #56	8.3 #28	3.8 #34	7.0 #89	10.8 #54

TOL scoring against the M-OH defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TOL scored	8.8 #32	13.0 #12	21.8 #23	8.8 #30	6.8 #74	15.5 #44
M-OH allowed	3.3 #35	6.0 #46	9.3 #43	5.3 #61	7.5 #99	12.8 #83

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.