Tulane @ UAB: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 6, 2024)

Sat, Oct 5, 2024, 1:00 PM EDTWeek 6 · at UAB · Conference game

Weather at kickoff82°F7 mphgusts 15DryWeather watch ›

Tulane

3-2 · Power #40

▲ winner

Final

UAB

1-3 · Power #116

final

Closing spread

TULN -18.5

✓ TULN W

Total

51.5

▲ Over · 91 pts

Model before kickoff

TULN 37–19 UAB

✓ TULN (90%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTULN -14.5

CloseTULN -18.5

Total55.5 → 51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenTULN -14.5

4 → TULN

CloseTULN -18.5

4 pts toward Tulane

Total

Open55.5

▼ 4

Close51.5

Down 4 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened TULN -14.5 · closed TULN -18.5 · moved 4 toward TULNmodel TULN -15

model TULN -15

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Lines that moved 3.5+ pts toward the favorite: that team covered 44% (36 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTULN -14.5

CloseTULN -18.5

Total55.5 → 51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TULN as an 18.5-point road favorite at UAB, the favorite won 9, covered 5, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: TULN won 71–20; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 91 points went over 51.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 90%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 20.3 against an average line of 17.9; 48.1 points a game (usually 54.2). Of the 3 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	AFA @ CSU 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & situation	-14.5	30–13	W	U47.5
Close	TOL @ BALL 2023 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & total	-17.5	13–6	L	U48
Close	LIB @ UTEP 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & total	-17.5	42–28	L	O54.5
Close	UCLA @ STAN 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar situation & rest	-17	42–7	W	U52
Close	AFA @ HAW 2023 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & situation	-20.5	13–27	L	U47.5
Close	SMU @ TEM 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar situation & rest	-24	55–0	W	O53
Close	TOL @ MASS 2023 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & situation	-19	41–24	L	O55.5
Close	MINN @ NEB 2022 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & situation	-14.5	20–13	L	U44.5
Loose	ND @ STAN 2021 · Week 13 · loose · similar rest & spread	-20.75	45–14	W	O53
Loose	UTSA @ RICE 2022 · Week 12 · loose · similar rest & situation	-14	41–7	W	U56

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TULN WWLWW	4-1	80%	1-1	3-0
UAB WL–L	1-2	33%	1-1	0-1

Venue/role: TULN away, as favorite; UAB home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
TULN UOOOU	3-2	60%	3-2
UAB UU–O	1-2	33%	1-3

Went over in Q3. Of 279 earlier overs in games with totals 47.5–55.5, 35% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TULN	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	4-6 40%
UAB	3-7 30%	3-6 33%	4-5 44%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

TULN 1–0 UAB TULN leads · 1 game since 2023 · TULN has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 30 2023	UAB 23 @ Tulane 35	TULN -22.5	UAB W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

TULN+1.3 →+5.3▲ 4.0#43

UAB−6.4 →−10.8▼ 4.4#110

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW5

TULN

Longer bar = better

UAB

#37

Offense

◀ TULN better

#81

#54

Defense

◀ TULN better

#102

+0.6 #46

Turnovers

◀ TULN better

−1.5 #130

65 plays #80

Pace

UAB faster ▶

71 plays #29

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When TULN has the ball

Advantage: TULN offense

	TULN off	UAB def	Edge
Points / game	36.8 #26	28.3 #97	TULN
Yards / play	6.52 #32	5.56 #82	TULN
PPA / play	+0.29 #22	+0.19 #106	TULN
Success rate	43% #68	48% #122	TULN

When UAB has the ball

Advantage: TULN defense

	UAB off	TULN def	Edge
Points / game	23.0 #102	22.2 #62	TULN
Yards / play	5.35 #100	5.20 #56	TULN
PPA / play	+0.11 #83	+0.01 #37	TULN
Success rate	47% #38	39% #60	UAB

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

TULN scoring against the UAB defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TULN scored	5.6 #76	13.4 #11	19.0 #33	8.4 #37	9.4 #29	17.8 #27
UAB allowed	4.0 #46	10.3 #113	14.3 #92	6.5 #87	7.5 #100	14.0 #96

UAB scoring against the TULN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UAB scored	6.8 #67	7.5 #83	14.3 #74	2.5 #126	6.3 #80	8.8 #119
TULN allowed	3.4 #37	6.8 #62	10.2 #52	5.8 #74	6.2 #74	12.0 #72

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.