Oklahoma @ Ole Miss: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 9, 2024)

Sat, Oct 26, 2024, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 9 · at Ole Miss · Conference game

Weather at kickoff75°F5 mphgusts 15DryWeather watch ›

Oklahoma

4-3 · Power #28

final

Final

Ole Miss

5-2 · Power #3

▲ winner

Closing spread

MISS -19.5

✓ OU W

Total

50.5

▼ Under · 40 pts

Model before kickoff

OU 17–36 MISS

✓ MISS (92%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMISS -20.5

CloseMISS -19.5

Total48.5 → 50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenMISS -20.5

1 → OU

CloseMISS -19.5

1 pt toward Oklahoma

Total

Open48.5

▲ 2

Close50.5

Up 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened MISS -20.5 · closed MISS -19.5 · moved 1 toward OUmodel MISS -18

model MISS -18

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 18.5–20.5 since 2023: won 96%, covered 51% (51 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 49% (70 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMISS -20.5

CloseMISS -19.5

Total48.5 → 50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like MISS as a 19.5-point home favorite against OU, the favorite won 10, covered 2, and 6 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: MISS won 26–14; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 40 points stayed under 50.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Normal range · usually 90%

Favorite covered

2 of 825%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 46%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 17.5 against an average line of 20; 61.9 points a game (usually 54.2). Of the 3 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	MICH vs MSU 2022 · Week 9 · close · similar situation & season form	-22.25	29–7	L	U55
Close	ALA vs SC 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar situation & spread	-21	27–25	L	O50
Close	ALA vs AUB 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar total & situation	-22	49–27	P	O51
Close	TENN vs FLA 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar situation & team ratings	-14	23–17	L	U55.5
Close	CIN vs TLSA 2021 · Week 10 · close · similar season form & situation	-22.5	28–20	L	U56
Close	ALA vs ARK 2021 · Week 12 · close · similar spread & situation	-20.5	42–35	L	O58.5
Close	TENN vs MIZ 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar spread & situation	-19	66–24	W	O57.5
Close	PSU vs MSU 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar situation & spread	-19	35–16	P	U54.5
Close	CLEM vs UVA 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar situation & spread	-20	48–31	L	O57.5
Close	OU vs ISU 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar spread & situation	-20	50–20	W	O48.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
OU WLWLL	3-4	43%	1-0	1-3
MISS WWLWL	5-2	71%	3-1	5-2

Venue/role: OU away, as underdog; MISS home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
OU OUOUO	3-4	43%	4-3
MISS UUUUU	1-6	14%	5-2

Stayed under: it needed 14 in the 4th quarter and got 3. 55% of games with totals 46.5–54.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
OU	6-4 60%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%
MISS	8-2 80%	6-3-1 67%	2-8 20%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

OU+17.8 →+7.9▼ 9.9#28

MISS+12.8 →+22.1▲ 9.3#4

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW8

Longer bar = better

MISS

#127

Offense

MISS better ▶

#23

Defense

MISS better ▶

+0.4 #44

Turnovers

Even

+0.6 #35

67 plays #68

Pace

MISS faster ▶

73 plays #13

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When OU has the ball

Advantage: MISS defense

	OU off	MISS def	Edge
Points / game	22.1 #110	10.6 #2	MISS
Yards / play	4.31 #135	4.06 #3	MISS
PPA / play	−0.07 #129	−0.07 #7	MISS
Success rate	34% #133	32% #1	MISS

When MISS has the ball

Even matchup

	MISS off	OU def	Edge
Points / game	41.4 #8	21.3 #40	MISS
Yards / play	7.68 #3	4.87 #23	Even
PPA / play	+0.38 #8	−0.02 #18	Even
Success rate	50% #8	35% #11	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

OU scoring against the MISS defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
OU scored	6.3 #64	5.9 #111	12.1 #96	2.1 #130	7.9 #48	10.0 #111
MISS allowed	0.9 #2	5.1 #30	6.0 #4	1.3 #6	2.4 #2	3.7 #3

MISS scoring against the OU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MISS scored	14.1 #1	11.3 #23	25.4 #3	10.3 #12	5.3 #104	15.6 #38
OU allowed	4.9 #63	9.1 #94	14.0 #87	3.1 #15	4.1 #23	7.3 #13

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.