Ole Miss @ Arkansas: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 10, 2024)

Sat, Nov 2, 2024, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 10 · at Arkansas · Conference game

Weather at kickoff66°F11 mphgusts 24DryWeather watch ›

Ole Miss

6-2 · Power #3

▲ winner

Final

Arkansas

5-3 · Power #32

final

Closing spread

MISS -7.5

✓ MISS W

Total

54.5

▲ Over · 94 pts

Model before kickoff

MISS 31–23 ARK

✓ MISS (72%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMISS -6

CloseMISS -7.5

Total55.5 → 54.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenMISS -6

1.5 → MISS

CloseMISS -7.5

1.5 pts toward Ole Miss

Total

Open55.5

▼ 1

Close54.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened MISS -6 · closed MISS -7.5 · moved 1.5 toward MISSmodel MISS -10

model MISS -10

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 6.5–8.5 since 2023: won 70%, covered 54% (79 games)ⓘ

Crossed 7Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 51% (76 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMISS -6

CloseMISS -7.5

Total55.5 → 54.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like MISS as a 7.5-point road favorite at ARK, the favorite won 6, covered 5, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: MISS won 63–31; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 94 points went over 54.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 70%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 8.3 against an average line of 7.1; 50.3 points a game (usually 53.7). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	UGA @ TENN 2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & situation	-9	38–10	W	U59
Close	ORE @ STAN 2021 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & spread	-8.5	24–31	L	U57.5
Close	CLEM @ FSU 2022 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & total	-4.5	34–28	W	O51
Close	FLA @ UK 2021 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & team ratings	-7.5	13–20	L	U56.5
Close	LOU @ UVA 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & total	-7	24–20	L	U54
Close	FSU @ SYR 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & spread	-7	38–3	W	U51.25
Close	MICH @ MSU 2021 · Week 9 · close · similar season form & situation	-4	33–37	L	O50.5
Close	MISS @ SC 2024 · Week 6 · close · similar situation & team ratings	-10	27–3	W	U53
Close	TEX @ TTU 2022 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & spread	-7	34–37	L	O60.25
Close	MISS @ AUB 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar spread & total	-6.5	28–21	W	U55.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MISS WLWLL	5-3	63%	2-1	5-3
ARK WWWLW	6-1	86%	1-1	4-1

Venue/role: MISS away, as favorite; ARK home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MISS UUUUU	1-7	13%	6-2
ARK UUUUO	3-4	43%	5-3

Went over in Q3. Of 286 earlier overs in games with totals 50.5–58.5, 34% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MISS	8-2 80%	6-3-1 67%	2-8 20%
ARK	6-4 60%	6-3 67%	5-4 56%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

MISS 1–0 ARK MISS leads · 1 game since 2023 · MISS has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 7 2023	Arkansas 20 @ Ole Miss 27	MISS -10.5	ARK W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MISS+12.8 →+21.3▲ 8.5#5

ARK+3.1 →+9.7▲ 6.6#24

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW9

MISS

Longer bar = better

ARK

Offense

◀ MISS better

#26

Defense

◀ MISS better

#54

+0.6 #31

Turnovers

◀ MISS better

−0.1 #82

72 plays #22

Pace

Even

71 plays #23

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MISS has the ball

Advantage: MISS offense

	MISS off	ARK def	Edge
Points / game	39.5 #13	21.8 #46	MISS
Yards / play	7.53 #2	5.39 #60	MISS
PPA / play	+0.35 #8	+0.04 #38	MISS
Success rate	49% #13	41% #73	MISS

When ARK has the ball

Advantage: MISS defense

	ARK off	MISS def	Edge
Points / game	33.3 #32	11.0 #1	MISS
Yards / play	6.75 #21	4.06 #3	Even
PPA / play	+0.21 #36	−0.07 #7	MISS
Success rate	48% #16	34% #5	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

MISS scoring against the ARK defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MISS scored	13.3 #2	10.3 #33	23.5 #5	10.6 #9	5.0 #111	15.6 #38
ARK allowed	4.3 #45	4.1 #12	8.4 #17	6.3 #81	6.1 #63	12.4 #75

ARK scoring against the MISS defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ARK scored	9.9 #12	9.1 #58	19.0 #22	5.1 #89	9.1 #20	14.3 #52
MISS allowed	1.6 #5	5.4 #27	7.0 #6	1.1 #4	2.1 #1	3.3 #1

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.