Texas A&M @ South Carolina: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 10, 2024)

Sat, Nov 2, 2024, 7:30 PM EDTWeek 10 · at South Carolina · Conference game

Weather at kickoff70°F4 mphDryWeather watch ›

Texas A&M

7-1 · Power #19

final

Final

South Carolina

4-3 · Power #13

▲ winner

Closing spread

TA&M -3.5

✓ SC W

Total

43.5

▲ Over · 64 pts

Model before kickoff

TA&M 24–21 SC

✗ TA&M (58%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTA&M -3.5

CloseTA&M -3.5

Total46.5 → 43.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenTA&M -3.5

no move

CloseTA&M -3.5

No change since the open

Total

Open46.5

▼ 3

Close43.5

Down 3 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened TA&M -3.5 · unchangedmodel SC -0.5

model SC -0.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 2.5–4.5 since 2023: won 55%, covered 45% (110 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTA&M -3.5

CloseTA&M -3.5

Total46.5 → 43.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TA&M as a 3.5-point road favorite at SC, the favorite won 6, covered 5, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: SC won 44–20 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 64 points went over 43.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 59%

Favorite covered

5 of 956%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 49%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 0.4 against an average line of 2.7; 41.8 points a game (usually 53.1). Of the 1 over, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	UCLA @ ARIZ 2023 · Week 10 · close · similar season form & situation	-2.5	10–27	L	U49.5
Close	KSU @ ISU 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar situation & season form	-1	10–9	P	U45
Close	CLEM @ ND 2022 · Week 10 · close · similar spread & team ratings	-3.5	14–35	L	O43.5
Close	OKST @ WVU 2021 · Week 10 · close · similar situation & spread	-3.5	24–3	W	U49
Close	TA&M @ SC 2022 · Week 8 · close · similar spread & total	-3	24–30	L	O44.5
Close	MICH @ MSU 2021 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & spread	-4	33–37	L	O50.5
Close	MD @ RUTG 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar situation & spread	-2	42–24	W	O45.5
Close	MICH @ PSU 2021 · Week 11 · close · similar team ratings & situation	-2.5	21–17	W	U48
Close	MD @ NEB 2023 · Week 11 · close · similar total & spread	-1.5	13–10	W	U42
Close	MSU @ IU 2021 · Week 7 · close · similar spread & rest	-3.5	20–15	W	U48.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TA&M –LWLW	3-4	43%	1-1	3-4
SC WWLWW	5-2	71%	2-2	3-1

Venue/role: TA&M away, as favorite; SC home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
TA&M –UOOO	5-2	71%	7-1
SC OOUOO	4-3	57%	4-3

Went over in Q3. Of 198 earlier overs in games with totals 39.5–47.5, 35% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TA&M	7-3 70%	4-5 44%	6-3 67%
SC	6-4 60%	7-3 70%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

TA&M 1–0 SC TA&M leads · 1 game since 2023 · TA&M has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 28 2023	South Carolina 17 @ Texas A&M 30	TA&M -17	SC W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

TA&M+13.5 →+14.7▲ 1.2#14

SC+5.6 →+12.1▲ 6.5#20

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW9

TA&M

Longer bar = better

#48

Offense

◀ TA&M better

#98

#24

Defense

Even

#23

+0.9 #19

Turnovers

◀ TA&M better

+0.6 #33

66 plays #81

Pace

SC faster ▶

69 plays #41

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When TA&M has the ball

Advantage: SC defense

	TA&M off	SC def	Edge
Points / game	32.3 #40	18.7 #22	Even
Yards / play	6.12 #49	4.44 #6	SC
PPA / play	+0.18 #49	−0.02 #12	SC
Success rate	44% #55	40% #53	Even

When SC has the ball

Advantage: TA&M defense

	SC off	TA&M def	Edge
Points / game	28.6 #67	18.4 #19	TA&M
Yards / play	5.01 #120	5.21 #46	TA&M
PPA / play	+0.07 #102	0.00 #22	TA&M
Success rate	40% #101	35% #8	TA&M

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

TA&M scoring against the SC defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TA&M scored	8.1 #31	9.8 #44	17.9 #33	7.6 #39	6.8 #79	14.4 #51
SC allowed	4.0 #43	7.0 #58	11.0 #50	3.4 #17	4.3 #20	7.7 #11

SC scoring against the TA&M defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SC scored	8.6 #24	8.0 #76	16.6 #45	4.4 #103	7.6 #55	12.0 #93
TA&M allowed	4.3 #47	2.9 #4	7.1 #6	5.3 #53	6.0 #61	11.3 #54

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.