Kentucky @ Tennessee: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 10, 2024)

Sat, Nov 2, 2024, 7:45 PM EDTWeek 10 · at Tennessee · Conference game

Weather at kickoff60°F4 mphDryWeather watch ›

Kentucky

3-5 · Power #50

final

Final

Tennessee

6-1 · Power #11

▲ winner

Closing spread

TENN -17.5

✓ UK W

Total

45.5

▲ Over · 46 pts

Model before kickoff

UK 14–32 TENN

✓ TENN (90%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTENN -15.5

CloseTENN -17.5

Total45.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenTENN -15.5

2 → TENN

CloseTENN -17.5

2 pts toward Tennessee

Total

Open45.5

no move

Close45.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened TENN -15.5 · closed TENN -17.5 · moved 2 toward TENNmodel TENN -19.5

model TENN -19.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 16.5–18.5 since 2023: won 94%, covered 53% (70 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 48% (83 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTENN -15.5

CloseTENN -17.5

Total45.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TENN as a 17.5-point home favorite against UK, the favorite won 10, covered 6, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: TENN won 28–18; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 46 points went over 45.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Normal range · usually 88%

Favorite covered

6 of 967%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 47%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 24.4 against an average line of 19.5; 49.2 points a game (usually 54.3). Of the 3 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	ND vs PITT 2023 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & total	-21	58–7	W	O45.5
Close	MICH vs IU 2021 · Week 10 · close · similar situation & team ratings	-20.5	29–7	W	U51
Close	MISS vs OU 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & season form	-19.5	26–14	L	U50
Close	TEX vs ISU 2022 · Week 7 · close · similar spread	-15.5	24–21	L	U48.5
Close	FSU vs BC 2022 · Week 4 · close · similar spread & total	-18.5	44–14	W	O48.5
Close	TEX vs BYU 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar total & situation	-20.5	35–6	W	U49.5
Close	MICH vs NU 2021 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & season form	-23.5	33–7	W	U51
Close	TEX vs TTU 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar situation & spread	-16	57–7	W	O53.5
Close	PSU vs MSU 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar situation & spread	-19	35–16	P	U54.5
Close	ALA vs SC 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar situation & total	-21	27–25	L	O50

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UK WWLLL	4-4	50%	1-1	2-0
TENN WWLLW	5-2	71%	3-1	4-2

Venue/role: UK away, as underdog; TENN home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UK OUUOU	2-6	25%	3-5
TENN OUUUU	3-4	43%	6-1

Went over in Q4. Of 251 earlier overs in games with totals 41.5–49.5, 35% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UK	4-6 40%	6-4 60%	4-6 40%
TENN	8-2 80%	6-4 60%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

UK 0–1 TENN TENN leads · 1 game since 2023 · TENN has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 28 2023	Tennessee 33 @ Kentucky 27	TENN -4	TENN W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

UK+5.8 →+4.9▼ 0.9#45

TENN+13.9 →+20.4▲ 6.5#8

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW9

Longer bar = better

TENN

#114

Offense

TENN better ▶

#40

#68

Defense

TENN better ▶

−0.3 #89

Turnovers

TENN better ▶

+0.1 #59

63 plays #111

Pace

TENN faster ▶

74 plays #9

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UK has the ball

Advantage: TENN defense

	UK off	TENN def	Edge
Points / game	19.1 #125	11.6 #3	TENN
Yards / play	4.93 #126	4.02 #2	TENN
PPA / play	+0.01 #117	−0.14 #4	TENN
Success rate	42% #87	35% #10	TENN

When TENN has the ball

Advantage: TENN offense

	TENN off	UK def	Edge
Points / game	39.6 #12	19.9 #29	Even
Yards / play	6.44 #33	5.76 #89	TENN
PPA / play	+0.19 #48	+0.10 #71	TENN
Success rate	44% #67	42% #81	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

UK scoring against the TENN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UK scored	2.7 #126	7.1 #95	9.9 #118	3.3 #120	4.3 #126	7.6 #128
TENN allowed	1.3 #2	1.4 #2	2.7 #1	3.9 #24	5.0 #37	8.9 #18

TENN scoring against the UK defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TENN scored	11.1 #4	10.1 #38	21.3 #12	10.1 #14	7.3 #64	17.4 #17
UK allowed	3.4 #29	6.7 #50	10.1 #33	6.3 #87	6.3 #70	12.6 #75

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.